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Historical on-chain data suggests Bitcoin bear markets have ended at a precise inflection point, and analysts say that signal deserves close attention in the current cycle.
Joao Wedson highlighted research from Alphractal showing that prior bear markets ended when the Short-Term Holder Realized Price crossed below the Long-Term Holder Realized Price. That crossover has historically marked capitulation among newer market participants, transferring coins to stronger hands.
In past cycles, once this shift occurred, downside momentum faded, and accumulation phases began. The subsequent bull market typically began when the two metrics crossed again and continued for roughly three years.
Analysts argue that the relationship between short-term and long-term cost bases remains one of the most reliable structural signals for identifying cycle bottoms.
While that on-chain trigger has not yet clearly resolved in the current environment, technical analysts see early signs of stabilization. Bitcoin is trading around $67,911, an area described as structurally significant.
 
Javon Marks notes that price action is forming a hidden bullish divergence, a pattern that often precedes continuation moves. If support holds, he argues Bitcoin could build a base for another expansion wave, potentially targeting $116,652 and eventually retesting all-time highs above $126,000.
At the same time, drawdown data temper expectations of a completed bear phase. The current decline of roughly 47% from peak to daily close remains far below the more than 90% collapse recorded in 2012.
Even so, Darkfost noted that bear markets have gradually become less severe over time. If that moderation trend persists, a correction in the 60-70% range would align more closely with prior cycles.
Bitcoin is hovering near $68k at press time, after geopolitical volatility tied to developments in Iran triggered sharp intraday swings. ETF outflows totaling $9.15 billion over the past four months, along with broader macro uncertainty, continue to weigh on sentiment, leaving investors focused on whether on-chain signals confirm the end of the downturn.