Key Insights:
- How the copper/gold ratio’s RSI could help predict how Bitcoin price will move in early 2026.
- Long-term Bitcoin holder outflows cool down, and why this could be great for the bulls.
- Not everyone is convinced of a rally ahead as Barron’s predicts a crypto winter in 2026.
What if gold and silver could offer an indicator that could predict the next Bitcoin price move? Crypto analyst Lark Davis may have stumbled on a pattern that supports this exact idea.
Analysts have been attempting to establish a directional bias for the Bitcoin (BTC) USD price, which has been trading within a narrow range. More so, taking into account the latest gold and silver rallies.
Liquidity prospects suggest that profit-taking by silver and gold traders may rotate into crypto. This could be one of the bullish triggers that may support a bullish price action in 2026.
Lark Davis noted that Bitcoin price upticks occur when the copper/gold ratio’s RSI retests its bottom range. Interestingly, this pattern played out during the recent Bitcoin USD price crash.
If history repeats the pattern, then Bitcoin price could he headed for a recovery in 2026. Another major factor supported such an outcome.
Long-term Whales Are No Longer Tugging Down on Bitcoin Price
Multiple data points revealed that large accounts held by long-term holders, otherwise known as whales, offloaded large amounts of Bitcoin in 2025. Outflows from such addresses surged substantially in December.
The long-term holder supply net position change revealed recently that the sharp wave of outflows also ended. In other words, long-term whales were no longer offloading their holdings.
This observation marked an essential observation because it means long-term profit-taking has run its course. This could make it easier for the bulls to regain control, but demand would have to make a solid comeback for that to happen.
The declining long-term holder outflows aligned with the previously mentioned gold/silver ratio pattern. However, it may take a few other major factors for the BTC USD price to enter recovery.
For example, demand has to manifest, especially from the big movers. This includes whales and institutions. Recent market data revealed that whale activity remained relatively subdued and institutional flows were negative.
Why a Crypto Winter Could Still Be at Play?
The latest market conditions underscored directional uncertainty among investors. While the above data supported a bullish scenario, it is also important to consider the other end of the spectrum.
Some analysts still believe that Bitcoin (BTC) USD price may be headed for more downside. A recent Barron’s publication stated that the market might be in a crypto winter that could potentially extend to 2026.
Past crypto winters were characterized by weak demand, declining prices, and low on-chain activity. The latest market conditions mirror those characteristics.
Moreover, a 2026 crypto winter would also mean that the 4-year cycle may still be unfolding. This is contrary to recent statements, which predicted that the market was headed for a Supercycle instead.
The overall market sentiment was still stuck in extreme fear. This plus combined with weak demand, meant the market was still not ready for a major rally. However, that could change once 2026 rolls in because January may unlock new market dynamics.
The prevailing uncertainty means investors will most likely sit on the sidelines until the market offers clear indication of a directional bias.