The whales could help the price of BTC

There is a very interesting dynamic underway that could have positive impacts on the price of BTC.

Yesterday, in fact, it was discovered that a new group of whales is accumulating Bitcoin, particularly starting from January.

These are addresses containing at least 1,000 BTC with an average age of less than six months.

The accumulation of whales: how does it affect the price of BTC?

A year ago, taken as a whole, the BTC on those addresses were in total just over 100,000.

In October 2024, however, they had already risen to 200,000, but until January 2025, they had not exceeded 300,000.

Well, in just over five months they have more than tripled, reaching over 1.1 million. 

This dynamic is very important for two reasons. 

The first is that it highlights how new whales are accumulating many Bitcoin, given that 1.1 million BTC at current prices are worth more than 115 billion dollars. 

The second is that the figure reached by these new whales is just a little less than half of all the BTC that are held as a reserve by all known exchanges. 

According to the data from CryptoQuant, on the monitored exchanges there are less than 2.4 million BTC, while the new whales have come to hold 1.1 million. 

The ETFs

It is possible that many of these new whales are the new ETFs that landed on the US exchanges less than a year and a half ago. 

In fact, during this period they have collectively gathered more than 44 billion dollars in total net positive inflows, and since the average price of Bitcoin over the last 365 days is about $81,000, these inflows alone have brought at least half a million BTC to the wallets of the new ETFs. 

The sole IBIT, that is BlackRock’s ETF on Bitcoin, now holds more than 660,000 BTC, with the second ETF (Fidelity’s) holding 200,000. However, it should be noted that the third, Grayscale’s GBTC, has dropped from more than 600,000 to less than 200,000. 

These numbers alone, however, do not justify the surge in just one year from 100,000 to 1.1 million BTC held by the new whales, indicating that the phenomenon is broader.

The selling pressure

The result of this dynamic is that the number of BTC available on exchanges to be sold has significantly decreased. 

In fact, a year ago there were almost 3.1 million, while now there are less than 2.4. 

If you compare the chart of total BTC in reserve on exchanges, you realize that a first significant drop occurred at the end of 2022, when the closure of FTX prompted many people to withdraw their Bitcoin from the exchanges. 

In September of last year, however, a dynamic began, apparently still ongoing, thanks to which the continuous reduction of BTC on exchanges seems to have continuously decreased, and by a lot, the selling pressure, thus causing its price to increase. 

In fact, at the end of August 2024, there were about 3 million BTC on the exchanges, and the price of Bitcoin was about $60,000. In December, the BTC on the exchanges had fallen to less than 2.8 million, while the price had risen above $100,000. 

Starting from February 2025, a new exodus of BTC from exchanges began, first dropping to less than 2.6 million, and then even to less than 2.4 million recently, with the price returning above $100,000. 

It is possible that part of this escape has been fueled precisely by the new whales mentioned above. 

The historical highs of the BTC price

One of the hypotheses that are circulating is that the continuous reduction in selling pressure could fuel a new rise in the price of Bitcoin, perhaps even beyond the current all-time highs. 

However, these hypotheses seem to contrast with the global macro-economic and financial framework. 

It is indeed possible that any non-positive data coming from the US economy, expected by several economists, could once again generate distrust in the financial markets, endangering the rise of Bitcoin. 

In reality, the current sentiment is still positive, but emotions can change very quickly, and in the case of new negative data, the sentiment could also turn bearish very quickly. 

Tomorrow, for example, very important data concerning the U.S. labor market is expected, and it could generate volatility if it does not meet expectations. 

It also remains to be seen how the Dollar Index will move, given that for several weeks now it has been moving sideways without a clear direction.