The Trump Effect: How Election Predictions Are Moving Bitcoin (BTC) Markets

TLDR:

• Trump leads with 60%+ probability across multiple prediction platforms
• Bitcoin reached nearly $70K as Trump’s odds increased
• Options traders pricing 20% chance of BTC hitting $80K by November
• Put/call ratio at 0.55 indicates strong bullish sentiment
• Trump-related assets surging: Trump Media stock up 141%, MAGA coin up 29%

Multiple prediction platforms are showing former President Donald Trump with a commanding lead in the upcoming U.S. presidential election, coinciding with Bitcoin’s approach toward its all-time high of $73,700.

According to data from Polymarket, one of several prominent prediction markets, Trump’s chances of winning the election stand at 66.1%, while Vice President Kamala Harris trails at 33.9%. This assessment is backed by other forecasting platforms, including The Economist (54%), Silver Bulletin (53.3%), and FiveThirtyEight (52.9%).

The cryptocurrency market has shown strong correlation with these predictions. Bitcoin’s price has surged to $68,000, representing a steady climb as Trump’s odds have increased across prediction platforms.

Jim Bianco of Bianco Research, who analyzed the data from multiple prediction sites including Polymarket, Kalshi, and PredictIt, noted that Trump’s odds have consistently remained above 60%. “This relationship between Trump’s polling numbers and Bitcoin’s price movement appears to be an election play,” Bianco stated.

1/11

🧵on Election Betting Update and its impact on markets.

Trump’s betting:

Average of all betting markets (black)

The three largest betting markets
Polymarket (blue)
Predictit (orange)
Kalshi (green).

Effectively, they all have the same results and trends. pic.twitter.com/j8aZjRSfFM

— Jim Bianco (@biancoresearch) October 27, 2024

In the swing states, Trump’s position appears particularly strong. Polymarket’s data suggests he could win all six key battleground states: Arizona (73%), Georgia (74%), Nevada (64%), Pennsylvania (62%), Wisconsin (58%), and Michigan (53%).

The options market has responded strongly to these predictions. Traders are currently pricing a 20% probability of Bitcoin reaching $80,000 by the end of November, according to recent market data.

Deribit, a major cryptocurrency derivatives exchange, reports nearly double the amount of Open Interest in call options compared to put options for contracts expiring by November 8. This imbalance suggests traders are positioning themselves for potential price increases.

The current put/call ratio stands at 0.55, indicating a notably bullish sentiment in the options market. A ratio below 1.0 typically signals that traders are favoring upside potential over downside risks.

Trump-related assets have seen substantial gains during this period. Trump Media & Technology Group Corp’s stock price has increased by 141.02% this month alone, rising from $16.16 to $38.95.

The cryptocurrency market has responded differently across various sectors. The MAGA meme coin, associated with Trump’s campaign slogan, has gained 29.32% this month.

However, the broader altcoin market has shown mixed performance. Altcoin dominance has decreased from 10.27% to 9.26% over the past 30 days, representing a 10.9% decline.

Among major cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin, USDC, Dogecoin, and Tron have posted gains over the last 30 days, while others have experienced declines.

Ethereum, the second-largest cryptocurrency, has experienced volatility throughout October. Starting the month at $2,601.77, it dropped to $2,350 before recovering to reach $2,746. Current prices hover around $2,500.