Last night, at the ABC studios in Philadelphia, the much-anticipated debate between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris was broadcast, triggering the unexpected reaction of the price of Bitcoin.
The democrat overnight seems to have narrowed the gap with the republican, even taking the lead according to Polymarket data.
As we approach the US presidential elections in November, the situation is heating up and forecasts are starting to have a greater impact on the cryptocurrency industry.
Where are we headed? Let’s delve into the matter below.
The relationship between the price of Bitcoin and the outcome of the US presidential elections: forecasts for November
It is now publicly known that the clash between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris is influencing the price of Bitcoin, determining its direction in the short term.
The fight for supremacy in the election campaign in relation to the upcoming USA presidential elections on November 18, strongly influences the behavior of cryptographic traders.
Basically, there is the belief that the victory of the tycoon could favor a growth of Bitcoin and the entire crypto sector. In recent months, Trump has in fact repeatedly reiterated his sympathy for the sector, stating that, if elected, he will support the “bitcoinizzazione” of the United States.
In his plans there is also the inclusion of cryptocurrency within the basket of reserve assets of the American Treasury, given its historical performance.
On the other hand, the potential entry of Kamala Harris into the White House seems to be seen as a threat to the crypto industry.
Democrats have always opposed the technological-financial innovation of blockchain, especially during the current Biden mandate.
Indicatively, even if deep down neither of the two candidates probably cares about the future of Bitcoin, the victory of one or the other could lead to completely opposite graphical outcomes.
The analysts at Bernstein expect a crypto rally in the 80-90 thousand dollars range if Donald Trump wins. On the opposite end, Kamala Harris’s victory is anticipated by experts with a price drop down to 30-40 thousand dollars.
In the meantime, until November, the orange currency could easily travel in the macro range from 50 to 70 thousand dollars.
The electoral college initially favors the lead of Donald Trump
Last night, a few hours before the start of the electoral debate between Trump and Harris, the price of Bitcoin started to rise rapidly.
From 18:00 to 22:00 (UTC +2) the bull increased the quotations by about 2%, bringing BTC close to 58,000 dollars.
The reason for this brief pump, later canceled in the following hours, would be attributed to a prospect published by the journalist and pollster Nate Silver.
He has indeed published in his own newspaper “Silver Bulletin” an update regarding the vote forecasts of the various electoral colleges.
While the popular vote data shows a more neutral situation, with a slight advantage for Harris, the electoral college data places Trump in clear bull.
In detail, the republican would be favored with a percentage of 64.4%, against the 35.3% of the democratic candidate.
Until last night, even the data from the prediction market Polymarket highlight Trump’s advantage with 52 percentage points against Harris’s 46 points.
Even on September 6, the billionaire entrepreneur reached the highest advantage of the last few weeks before the elections, extending the gap to 53 points.
Kamala Harris returns to parity with Donald Trump and the price of Bitcoin drops
At the end of the debate between Trump and Harris at the ABC studios, the democrat saw a strong rebound in the electoral forecasts, canceling the previous rise in the price of Bitcoin.
After over 90 minutes of high-pitched discussions, surprisingly Joe Biden’s successor has regained a lot of lost ground.
This morning, in fact, at 5:15 AM (UTC+2), the probabilities of winning for either the bull or the bear returned to a perfect tie at 49%.
Polymarket data currently shows a slight advantage for Harris at 50 points against Trump’s 49 points.
In the early hours of the morning, the price of BTC consequently crashed by 2.5%, returning to the 56,000 dollar zone.
In the financial market, the terms “bull” and “bear” are often used to describe market trends. A “bull” market is characterized by rising prices, while a “bear” market is characterized by falling prices. Understanding these terms is crucial for investors.
During the debate Kamala Harris seems to have had the upper hand, with the American people preferring her attitude over that of the contender.
In the dialectical clash, many topics were discussed, such as foreign relations, the sovereignty of the United States, and public security.
In particular, Kamala accused the tycoon of having ties with the dictators Putin and Kim Jong-un, and of not being ready to take on the role of President.
Low blows from the democrat who stated the following on national live broadcast:
“If Donald Trump were president, Putin would be sitting in Kiev right now, and you understand what that would mean, because Putin’s agenda is not just about Ukraine.”
On the other hand, Trump did not talk about Bitcoin and how the growth of its price could benefit the asset situation of the United States.
In reality, neither of the two candidates addressed the crypto topic, which remains a niche subject. Trump instead focused on the country’s security, accusing the Vice President of wanting to reduce funds for the State Police.
In his speech, the republican referred to a recent news event that took place in Ohio, where an immigrant woman allegedly killed and then ate a cat on the street.
Source: https://en.cryptonomist.ch/2024/09/11/the-clash-between-donald-trump-and-kamala-harris-moves-the-price-of-bitcoin-here-are-the-latest-forecasts/