Public companies that once raced to stockpile Bitcoin are starting to run into trouble. A growing share of these firms now trade at market values lower than the BTC sitting on their balance sheets – a sign the corporate treasury boom that defined much of the past two years is losing its shine.
Research from K33 shows that one in four publicly listed “Bitcoin treasury” firms have slipped below net asset value, making it harder for them to issue stock and continue buying. Analyst Vetle Lunde warned that when companies fall into this position, fresh equity raises dilute existing shareholders without delivering equal value in Bitcoin.
Some of the steepest declines are dramatic. NAKA, the vehicle formed by KindlyMD and Nakamoto Holdings, has collapsed by more than 95% from its highs, with its premium to net assets evaporating almost entirely. Other names – including Tether-backed Twenty One, Semler Scientific, and The Smarter Web Company – have also tipped below parity, according to Bitcoin Treasuries data.
The overall trend is clear: smaller firms are falling underwater, while larger players still trade above their reserves, but at thinner margins than before. MicroStrategy, long viewed as the poster child of the strategy, has seen its own premium shrink to levels not seen since early 2024. That has slowed its once-regular Bitcoin purchases, weakening one of the most important sources of spot demand over the past year.
Signs of fatigue are already showing in flows. Corporate buyers have added fewer coins in September than at any point since spring, averaging just over 1,400 BTC a day. K33 noted this is part of a broader correction, arguing that pure-play treasury firms shouldn’t command heavy premiums given the costs they carry, from advisory fees to insider incentives.
At the same time, Bitcoin’s derivatives market has offered a different picture. CME futures – a barometer for institutional activity – have flipped back to trading at modest premiums compared with offshore perpetual contracts. Historically, discounts at CME have lined up with overheated peaks, while frothy perps have signaled speculative excess. The current balance suggests a healthier backdrop.
Still, leverage risks remain. Funding rates have stayed elevated above yearly averages, and open interest in perpetual futures is higher than before Bitcoin’s last surge past $115,000. Analysts caution this leaves room for a sharp squeeze if overly bullish positioning starts to unravel.
With more than 1 million BTC now sitting in corporate treasuries, the tide may be shifting toward ETFs and retail investors to provide the next leg of demand – signaling that the era of corporate balance sheets driving the market may be nearing its end.
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Alex is an experienced financial journalist and cryptocurrency enthusiast. With over 8 years of experience covering the crypto, blockchain, and fintech industries, he is well-versed in the complex and ever-evolving world of digital assets. His insightful and thought-provoking articles provide readers with a clear picture of the latest developments and trends in the market. His approach allows him to break down complex ideas into accessible and in-depth content. Follow his publications to stay up to date with the most important trends and topics.
Source: https://coindoo.com/the-bitcoin-treasury-boom-is-crashing-what-happens-next/