Swissblock Head Macro Economist Revises Bitcoin Target as He Warns of Upcoming Recession

Henrik Zeberg, the Head Macro Economist at wealth management firm Swissblock AG, recently updated his forecasts for several assets, including Bitcoin. 

His revisions come as he anticipates a severe economic downturn, predicting the worst recession since the 1929 Great Depression. The update maintains Zeberg’s confidence in his earlier bullish predictions, which contrast with the prevailing bearish sentiment at the time.

An Earlier Bullish Outlook Amid Skepticism

Back in December 2022, when market sentiment was largely pessimistic, Zeberg stood out by maintaining a bullish stance. At the time, Bitcoin changed hands around the $16,500 price territory.

While many experts predicted an imminent market crash, Zeberg dismissed these warnings, relying on his Business Cycle Model. At that time, he set ambitious price targets for several major indices and assets, including the S&P 500, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, and Bitcoin. 

Despite widespread skepticism, Zeberg’s predictions hinged on his belief that the market had already bottomed out in October 2022. His original targets included a Bitcoin price range of $95,000 to $100,000, an S&P 500 peak between $5,700 and $6,300, and similarly optimistic projections for the Nasdaq and Dow Jones.

An Even More Bullish Review 

As market dynamics have shifted over the past months, Zeberg has now refined his targets, adjusting them upwards. 

REMEMBER!?

In December 2022, everybody was BEARISH!

I was BULLISH!

We were told that “Imminent Crash” was ahead of us – despite the fact, that market bottomed in October 2022.

Based on my Business Cycle Model, I dismissed the call of #Recession and I set my targets back then… https://t.co/1rw4DVLtKA

— Henrik Zeberg (@HenrikZeberg) August 23, 2024

He now forecasts Bitcoin to reach a peak of $115,000 to $120,000. For the S&P 500, his revised target is between $6,100 and $6,300, while the Nasdaq could soar to $24,000 to $25,000. He predicts the Dow Jones could hit $45,000.

Notably, Zeberg remains confident in a blow-off top scenario, where market euphoria drives prices to unsustainable levels before a significant correction. He projected that the anticipated bullish phase has yet to reach its climax, indicating that there is still room for growth in these markets.

This is in sharp contrast to a previous assertion by market veteran Peter Brandt in June, when he argued that Bitcoin might have already reached its peak for this cycle. Interestingly, Brandt later forecasted BTC to breach the $73K top toward $92K when it breaks the ongoing consolidation.

Warning of a Historic Recession

Bitcoin currently trades for $61,391, having increased 1.55% over the past 24 hours and 5.85% in the last seven days. BTC is now looking to retest the $62,000 psychological resistance in a recent recovery push.

Meanwhile, despite his bullish outlook, Zeberg warns that a severe recession is on the horizon, and it will likely be the worst since 1929. He expects this economic downturn to unfold in two phases. The first phase will be deflationary, characterized by a sharp contraction in economic activity. 

This will be followed by a stagflationary period, where inflation remains high while economic growth stalls. Zeberg predicts a temporary market rebound in 2025, driven by Federal Reserve intervention, but this will be short-lived.