After two years of near-relentless accumulation, Strategy’s pace of bitcoin buying is cooling — at least for now. The company’s latest quarterly figures revealed that its once-lofty valuation premium has thinned to its weakest point since early 2023.
Yet despite that slowdown, analysts tracking the stock aren’t seeing red flags. Most argue the lull says more about market timing than about Strategy’s model itself — a system built to convert Wall Street capital directly into Bitcoin exposure.
Cooling Momentum, Rising Confidence
The firm’s market premium to net asset value, or mNAV, currently sits near 1.2x, suggesting investor enthusiasm has tempered as BTC consolidates around $110,000. Even so, Strategy shares jumped more than 5% on Friday, extending a recovery fueled by optimism over both market stability and upcoming macro catalysts.
Analysts at Mizuho Securities remain bullish, calling the slowdown “a breather, not a breakdown.” They reiterated their Outperform rating and a $586 target, noting that Strategy’s BTC holdings have grown to over 640,000 BTC — roughly 3% of total global supply.
What’s more, Mizuho estimates the firm’s Bitcoin yield sits near 26% for the year, on track to hit its internal 30% goal if prices stay firm. The research team projects Bitcoin could reach $150,000 by the end of 2025, which would translate to compound growth of roughly 25% over three years.
“Access to capital markets and rising BTC prices remain the key levers,” Mizuho wrote. “With both in play, yield expansion looks sustainable.”
A Credit Door Opens for Billions
Other analysts are zeroing in on something far bigger than quarterly metrics: Strategy’s newfound credit access.
TD Cowen’s research desk argues that the company’s recent B– rating from S&P could fundamentally change its funding capabilities. The rating makes Strategy eligible for participation in a $4.9 trillion global credit pool, potentially tripling the scale at which it can raise money for BTC acquisitions.
Cowen’s team trimmed its price target to $535 to reflect a softer fourth-quarter start but emphasized that the structural tailwinds are intact. They highlighted a new Return-of-Capital tax classification on the firm’s preferred dividends — a feature that allows investors to defer taxation indefinitely, boosting appeal for long-term institutional holders.
“What looked like a sure thing in mid-2025 now seems more gradual,” Cowen wrote, “but the recovery path remains clear. We still expect major activity resumption by early 2026.”
Benchmark: “The Premium Dip Is a Gift”
Meanwhile, Benchmark’s senior analyst Mark Palmer is treating the mNAV compression as a buying opportunity. He argues that the dip reflects normalization, not weakness, as volatility in both BTC and Strategy’s premium subsides.
Palmer reaffirmed a Buy rating with a $705 price target, highlighting continued strength in Strategy’s preferred-share program, which offers tax-advantaged yields linked to Bitcoin exposure. The analyst said management continues to attract interest from large investors searching for regulated, yield-bearing Bitcoin plays — something spot ETFs don’t offer.
A Pause, Not a Pivot
Put together, the message from Wall Street is clear: the machine hasn’t stopped, it’s just idling.
Strategy’s business remains built on a feedback loop between capital markets and Bitcoin appreciation — a structure that analysts say could deliver exponential returns if macro conditions align. The company’s long-term goal of sustaining Bitcoin yield above 30% still stands, and its new credit pathways could fuel the next wave of accumulation once sentiment improves.
For now, the firm seems content to conserve momentum while positioning itself for the next leg higher — when both capital and crypto enthusiasm reignite.
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