Still no sign of reversal on the ETH/BTC pair

Many are waiting for the ETH/BTC trading pair to reverse the bearish trend.

Although there are several elements that suggest a possible reversal, currently there are still no signals that would allow us to consider it imminent. 

The ETH/BTC trading pair

The trading pair ETH/BTC is the pair that allows the exchange of Ethereum in Bitcoin, and vice versa, on exchanges.

The interesting thing is not so much the fact that it exists, or that it is used, also because these are things so obvious as to be evident and trivial. 

What is interesting to follow is the trend of its value, that is, the price variations. 

In this pair, in fact, the price is expressed in BTC and concerns ETH. In other terms, it allows monitoring over time the trend of the price of Ethereum expressed in Bitcoin, that is, the ratio of forces between ETH and BTC on the crypto markets.

When ETH appreciates compared to BTC, it means that the price of Ethereum is performing better than that of Bitcoin, and vice versa when ETH depreciates, it means that Bitcoin is performing better.

It should be noted, however, that often the prices in dollars of Ethereum and Bitcoin, that is, those commonly taken as a reference to evaluate their value, tend to move in the same direction, so the ETH/BTC pair does not provide indications on the price movements of Ethereum and Bitcoin in dollars. 

The variations over time in the price of ETH expressed in BTC are limited to indicating when one outperforms the other, or vice versa, which still remains an interesting fact. 

The historical trend of the ETH/BTC pair

In general, Ethereum outperforms Bitcoin during the peak of the bull run, while Bitcoin performs better during the bear-market, the periods of lateralization, and the beginnings of the bull run. 

This dynamic is well described by the trend of the price of ETH in BTC over the past few years. 

During the last major bull run, the one in 2021, ETH went from about 21 thousandths of BTC to over 77 thousandths in less than twelve months. The peak during that bull run was reached precisely in the days when the price of Ethereum was recording its new all-time high, in November 2021, almost reaching 85 thousandths of BTC. 

Practically the price of Ethereum appreciated by 300% compared to that of Bitcoin, outperforming it by a lot. 

Until September 2022, when Ethereum transitioned from Proof-of-Work to Proof-of-Stake, the price of ETH in BTC remained above 80 thousandths, albeit not consistently. 

After the transition to PoS, however, a slow decline began. 

The bear trend

The price of Ethereum in the crypto markets began to underperform that of Bitcoin already in the second half of September 2022, that is, just after the transition to PoS. 

In October, however, it rose slightly, but only to start a descending trend that still seems to be ongoing. 

From then until today, in almost two years, the decline has been almost continuous, and it has stopped only rarely and for a short time, so much so that it can be considered substantially constant. 

From September 2022 to September 2023 ETH lost 26% of its value compared to BTC, and in the following twelve months it lost an additional 34%, even though September 2024 is not yet completely over. 

The reasons for this decline are due both to the not particularly good performance of ETH in 2024, and above all to the excellent performance of BTC in the last two years. 

Suffice it to say that while since September 2022 the price in dollars of Bitcoin has gone from $21,000 to the current $64,000, with a growth of 240% in just under twenty-four months, that of Ethereum has been limited to a +104%, going from about $1,300 to the current $2,600. 

Furthermore, during 2024 the price of BTC reached new all-time highs, while ETH stopped at -16% from the highs. 

When will the ETH/BTC pair reversal arrive?

Many are expecting sooner or later a trend reversal, consisting not only of the end of the descending phase, but even the beginning of a new ascending phase. 

For all this to happen, however, a new great bull run would need to start, and although it is possible in October, it is not certain that it will happen. 

When a major bull run begins, the price of Bitcoin starts to rise rapidly and attracts a lot of capital to the crypto markets. 

After a few months, however, the rapid rise of BTC slows down, and if there is still a lot of capital entering the crypto markets, it shifts to those altcoins that could generate higher returns, such as Ethereum. 

At this precise moment, there is still no clear signal in that sense. 

Indeed, the price of ETH in BTC is continuing to fall, as it has dropped by 3% in the last thirty days. 

The last days

The minimum peak of this period, however, was reached about ten days ago, when the price of ETH dropped to 38 thousandths of BTC. 

So in the last 10 days there has been a very small rise, which however ended a week ago above 42 thousandths. 

In the last seven days it has returned to 41 thousandths, but it is difficult to see in this very slight decline a clear indicator of direction. 

What is certain, however, is that no bull run has yet begun, so much so that the price of Bitcoin has simply returned to lateralize in that price range that it had held from March until June, between $57,000 and $72,000.

The slight rebound of ETH on BTC over the past week, however, is promising, indicating that Ethereum might be ready to restart if Bitcoin were to restart. 

It should not be forgotten that bull runs are generally initiated by a clear and rapid rise in the price of BTC in USD, and this has not really happened yet.