StanChart reaffirms Bitcoin on track to reclaim ATH by election day, 6-figures if Trump wins

Standard Chartered believes Bitcoin will reclaim the $73,000 price level on Election Day, Nov. 5 and

According to the report Bitcoin—Post-US Election Playbook, authored by the lender’s head of digital assets research, Geoffrey Kendrick, the flagship crypto could see significant price movement before and after the upcoming US presidential election.

Additionally, the report reaffirmed previous six-figure price projections and said that Bitcoin may reach $125,000 by year-end if Republicans secure both the presidency and Congress.

Trump victory could propel Bitcoin

According to the report, if former President Donald Trump is declared the winner, Bitcoin could rise as much as 10% in the days following the election.

Betting markets, including Polymarket, now show a 59% to 64% probability of a Trump victory, with a 75% chance of a Republican congressional sweep if he wins.

The immediate aftermath of the result is expected to see a 4% jump overnight, bringing Bitcoin to approximately $76,000. Heavy interest in Bitcoin call options with a $80,000 strike price for late December suggests that the market is anticipating further upward momentum.

According to Kendrick:

“With high open interest in December BTC call options at the $80,000 level, we expect the price to continue climbing, possibly reaching $80,000 within days after the result.”

Beyond this, Standard Chartered’s projections indicate Bitcoin may hit $125,000 by the end of the year if Republicans also take control of Congress. This is because a Republican-controlled Congress is expected to implement pro-crypto regulatory reforms, providing a strong tailwind for Bitcoin’s price.

Harris win to cause temporary dip

In contrast, a Kamala Harris victory could initially push Bitcoin’s price lower. The report suggests that a Harris administration would be slower to enact favorable crypto regulations, causing some short-term uncertainty in the market.

However, Kendrick noted that Bitcoin’s downturn might be short-lived, with the crypto likely to recover and finish 2024 at around $75,000. He added:

“The market would recognize that regulatory change is still possible under a Harris administration, but at a more measured pace than under a Trump presidency.”

Harris is expected to take a less aggressive approach, but the overall outlook for Bitcoin remains positive, albeit more cautiously optimistic. The sentiment is echoed by others in the industry, who believe Bitcoin will continue to grow regardless of the election outcome.

With the US election just days away, the future of Bitcoin appears closely tied to the political outcome. Market volatility is expected to remain high, and traders will be closely monitoring the election results as a key indicator for Bitcoin’s price trajectory.

Mentioned in this article