 
 
Anatoly Yakovenko, Solana’s co-founder, has warned that innovation around quantum computing will put Bitcoin under significant risk by the end of the decade. Amplified by artificial intelligence (AI), Yakovenko disclosed that there might be a 50% chance of breaking Bitcoin’s cryptography by the end of the decade.
Quantum Computing Poses New Risks For Bitcoin
In a panel discussion at the All-In Summit, Yakovenko shared his thoughts on the impact of quantum computing on cryptography, predicting that Bitcoin will face significant risks. According to the Solana co-founder, there is a 50-50 chance that quantum computing will be able to break Bitcoin’s SHA-256 cryptographic algorithm within five years.
Yakovenko noted that the biggest driver of innovation in quantum computing is the rise of AI. For Yakovenko, AI’s ability to shorten the time between a research paper and implementation tips the scales in favor of a quantum breakthrough by 2030.
“We should migrate Bitcoin to a quantum-resistant signature scheme,” said Yakovenko.
He urged the Bitcoin network to migrate to a quantum-resistant cryptographic stack, citing the recent pivots made by Big Tech firms Google and Apple. At the moment, Google and IBM have unveiled roadmaps for their quantum computing projects, targeting the development of viable fault-tolerant systems.
 
While Yakovenko predicts that quantum computing may break Bitcoin’s cryptography by the end of the decade, several hardliners say the chances remain slim till 2040. Back in August, Elon Musk asked Grok to gauge the odds of quantum computing cracking the SHA-256 algorithm, with the AI chatbot placing the probability of a breakthrough over five years at nearly 0%.
Meanwhile, Ethereum developers have unveiled a roadmap to make the blockchain quantum-resistant over the next decade. However, plans to transition Bitcoin to a quantum-resistant signature must grapple with the issue of achieving consensus and the risk of a post-quantum signature being larger and slower.
Bitcoin Safe From Large Entity Failures
After expressing concerns over the risk posed by quantum computing, Yakovenko noted that Bitcoin will remain resilient in the event of a collapse by large entities holding BTC. He argues that even if an entity owns 20% of the total supply, Bitcoin will survive the shock of an entity’s collapse.
“As long as it’s an open and global competition to acquire Bitcoin and we don’t end up in a sort of regulatory nightmare, I think Bitcoin will survive those kinds of shocks,” said Yakovenko.
Corporate Bitcoin adoption has gone through the roof since the start of the year, with Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) accumulating over 600,000 BTC. Keen on mirroring Strategy’s playbook, several firms, including Metaplanet, MARA Holdings, XXI, and GameStop, are increasing the size of their BTC holdings.