According to on-chain analyst Axel Adler Jr, the current Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) indicator for Short-Term Holders (STH)—specifically those holding Bitcoin for 1 to 3 months—stands at 27%.
Historically, when this metric crosses the 40% threshold, it signals potential sell-offs by this cohort, often triggering downward price pressure.
Adler outlines that at the current growth rate of approximately 0.818 percentage points per day, the 40% level could be reached in around 16 days, projecting the key date as June 11, 2025.
If this pattern continues, Adler estimates that BTC could hit a price of $162,000 by the time STH profit levels approach the 40% zone. This prediction is based on linear extrapolation and does not account for unpredictable variables such as black swan events or sudden political influence (e.g., a presidential tweet).
Historically, Bitcoin saw sharp pullbacks at similar NUPL peaks — 47%, 44%, 66%, 47%, and 57% over the past four years — each followed by notable sell pressure from short-term holders. The current rise toward that level is being closely watched by traders who recognize its potential impact on short-term price direction.
As of now, the NUPL for short-term holders is at 27%. The threshold for profit-taking historically has been around 40%. The required increase from the current level is 13 percentage points. At the projected growth rate of 0.818 percentage points per day, it would take approximately 16 days to reach the threshold, landing around June 11, 2025. If this scenario plays out, Adler forecasts Bitcoin could reach $162,000 by that time.
Kosta Gushterov
Reporter at Coindoo
Kosta has been a part of the team since 2021 and has solidified his position with a thirst for knowledge, incredible dedication to his work and a “detective-like” mindset. He not only covers a wide range of trending topics, he also creates reviews, PR articles and educational content. His work has also been referenced by other news outlets.
Source: https://coindoo.com/short-term-bitcoin-holders-near-profit-taking-zone-price-prediction-for-mid-june/