Selling Bitcoin Early Make US & German Missed $18B Profits

Key Points:

• The U.S. and German governments sold large amounts of Bitcoin too early, resulting in a missed profit of up to $18 billion as Bitcoin hit new ATHs.
• Both governments selling Bitcoin assets cost them significant potential gains amid the Q3 2024 crypto market rally.

From June to August, selling Bitcoin by U.S. and German authorities caused a “nightmare” for the Q3 2024 crypto market, triggering severe price drops.

Germany Missed $1.6 Billion Bitcoin Profits by Selling Bitcoin

According to preliminary estimates, the German government missed out on an additional $1.6 billion in profit by selling Bitcoin four months ago at an average price of around $57,600.

The large-scale liquidation of 49,858 Bitcoin was conducted by the German government at the time, generating an unprecedented sum of $2.88 billion — marking a 33% profit.

If the German government had decided to “HODL” the nearly 50,000 BTC until now, the liquidation would have fetched approximately $4.5 billion as Bitcoin reached a new all-time high (ATH) of $89,900, driven by Donald Trump’s election as the 47th President of the United States and the Fed’s rate cuts aligning with market expectations.

In total, selling 49,858 BTC early cost the German government around $1.6 billion in missed profits, equating to a potential 56% gain — a substantial figure for any organization, corporation, or nation.

The U.S. Missed Out on a Whopping $16.6 Billion

Germany is not the only nation that missed potential profits by offloading Bitcoin prematurely. According to data from Jameson Lopp, CSO of Case, the U.S. Government has sold 195,091 Bitcoin over the past decade through 11 different auctions.

The total revenue from these auctions selling Bitcoin amounted to $366.5 million. However, with the current Bitcoin price hovering around $89,000, the value of those Bitcoins would be nearly $17 billion, resulting in an opportunity cost of $16.6 billion.

Currently, the on-chain data analytics tool Arkham indicates that the U.S. Government still holds a massive 208,109 BTC (valued at approximately $18.22 billion at the time of writing). In addition, the US government also holds significant amounts of other major altcoins like ETH, WBTC, USDT, BNB, BUSD, and USDC, with a combined value of over $484 million.

Trump’s Election Brings New Crypto Strategies to the US Government’s Bitcoin Holdings

With Trump’s election victory securing him the White House seat, the 208,109 BTC held by the U.S. Government will no longer pose a selling Bitcoin threat to the crypto community. The newly elected U.S. President has hinted at new strategies, including “preventing national Bitcoin sales” and “establishing a strategic Bitcoin reserve.”

Donald Trump emphasized that this plan is part of his vision to position the U.S. as a global leader in cryptocurrency, ensuring that the nation becomes the “Crypto Capital of the World.“

Notably, Trump’s statement was made during his campaign at the Bitcoin 2024 Conference, where Wyoming Republican Senator Cynthia Lummis also proposed a bill calling for the U.S. Government to purchase 1 million Bitcoins — currently worth approximately $88 billion — as a national reserve. The bill also allows states to buy Bitcoin if they choose.

Lummis’ proposal may help offset the opportunity cost the U.S. incurred by selling Bitcoin early. However, after Trump’s victory, acquiring such a large amount of Bitcoin has become significantly more expensive.