A wallet labeled as “Satoshi‑era” executed a massive swap: 35,991 BTC, valued at approximately 4.04 billion dollars according to CoinMarketCap, were exchanged for 886,371 ETH, estimated around 4.07 billion dollars based on CoinMarketCap.
The operation, monitored on-chain by analysis tools like Glassnode, has reignited attention on liquidity, accumulation, and potential domino effects on the price of Ethereum.
External analyses and market research indicate how movements of institutional capital and from large wallets can have pronounced impacts on the depth of order books in the short term Chainalysis, while on-chain circulating supply data confirm the proportions indicated on Etherscan Etherscan.
According to data collected by our editorial team, verified through Glassnode and Etherscan at 23:45 CEST on September 15, 2025, the swap is attributable to net flows that have traversed multiple liquidity pools; market analysts observe consistent signals of capital reallocation from Bitcoin to Ethereum.
Key Points (in brief)
- BTC sold: 35.991 BTC (≈ 4.04 billion USD at the time of recording, data from CoinMarketCap)
- ETH received: 886.371 ETH (≈ 4.07 billion USD at the time of recording, data from CoinMarketCap)
- Time window: September 15, 2025 (CEST), spot price referred to 11:45 PM CEST
- Relative impact: 886,371 ETH represent about 0.74% of the circulating supply of Ethereum, estimated at 120,000,000 ETH (on-chain data as of 09/15/2025 from Etherscan), while 35,991 BTC correspond to about 0.18% of the Bitcoin supply, with an estimated circulation of ~19.65 million units (data from CoinMarketCap/Etherscan);
- Related flows: recent BTC movements to hot wallets suggest the possibility of further ETH purchases; for more insights on the concept of hot wallets, see our internal guide Hot wallet (glossary).
What Happened (and Why It Matters)
According to on-chain monitoring, the wallet in question has converted a significant portion of BTC into ETH, with a value discrepancy in line with normal market slippage.
The transaction, valued at around 4 billion dollars, impacts the available liquidity and fuels the narrative of a rotation from Bitcoin to Ethereum in the short term (Chainalysis).
That said, the real impact will depend on the persistence of the flows and the market’s ability to absorb them without excessive friction.
The picture becomes more significant considering the accumulation trend by large-sized wallets: addresses holding between 10K and 100K ETH are on the rise, with levels close to recent highs recorded on analysis dashboards like Glassnode and Santiment.
In this context, signals of further concentration can influence expectations and tactical positioning; for historical data and trends on large holders, see our in-depth analysis Whales ETH: movements and trends.
Why such an operation can move ETH
- Spot demand: such a large-scale swap increases the buying pressure on ETH and can reduce, even if only temporarily, the available supply.
- Signal of confidence: the allocation towards ETH by a high-caliber investor can attract additional speculative flows.
- News effect: high media coverage generates additional interest and potentially accentuates volatility.
Market Reaction: Accumulation and Psychology
Wallets containing between 10K and 100K ETH are increasing their positions, with levels that various trackers indicate as nearing records, contributing to strengthening the perceived momentum.
However, the continuity of flows and the depth of the order books on exchanges will determine the evolution of the trend. It should be noted that the psychological component, during rally phases, tends to emphasize directional movements.
Q3 2025: where does this movement stand
- ETH Performance in Q3 2025: +87.66% (so far, data reported by market observers like CoinMarketCap)
- Historical Average Q3 (ETH): +9.55% (historical data published by various market dashboards)
- Comparison: The rallies of Q3 2020 and Q3 2021 were less amplified compared to the current progression, highlighting an exceptional performance for the current quarter.
In this context, out-of-scale operations like the one observed can act as a catalyst, consolidating an already favorable sentiment for Ethereum. Yet, the elasticity of liquidity and potential profit-taking remain crucial variables for the trajectory of the quarter.
Technical Indicators: Operational Summary
At the time of reporting, Ethereum is trading at approximately 4,663 USD, remaining above the technical support area of 4,600 USD (CoinGecko as a reference for the spot price). The technical tools indicate:
- RSI (relative strength index): in the area of positive momentum, indicating an active trend without overbought conditions.
- MACD (moving average convergence/divergence): the MACD line remains above the signal, although the histogram shows signs of a slowdown in momentum.
- EMA at 50, 100, and 200 days: the price is positioned above these averages, indicating progressive technical supports.
- Volume: 13.770 (the unit of this data – e.g., thousands of contracts or transactions – is yet to be confirmed, therefore it should be interpreted with caution in historical comparisons).
In practical terms, as long as Ethereum maintains closures above these dynamic supports and no marked bearish divergences appear on RSI and MACD, the outlook remains constructive; a drop below the 4,600–4,550 USD area could trigger deeper rebalancing. That said, intraday volatility can remain high in the presence of news or abnormal volumes.
Implications of Large BTC→ETH Transfers
- Supply/DEMAND: the swap has increased the spot demand for ETH, potentially draining liquidity from the sell side.
- Media coverage: the high visibility of the trade encourages potential speculative entries and further accumulation.
- Concentration risk: if the operator were to reverse course, the concentration of capital could amplify volatility.
Quick FAQ
Is ETH above 4,600 USD a reliable support?
The area around 4,600 USD represents an important technical support: maintaining the price above this level, along with the position above the main EMAs and the absence of bearish divergences, strengthens the outlook.
In an optimistic scenario, we could see a consolidation above 4,600–4,700 USD; in a negative scenario, losing this level could push the price to test lower moving averages and increase volatility.
What are the risks associated with concentration in a single “whale”?
The concentration of capital in a single operator amplifies the potential impact of the trade: a rapid distribution of the position could trigger cascading sales.
It is therefore essential to monitor the flows to the exchanges and observe any fragmentations into different addresses. For operational guidance on how to monitor the flows, see our article on how to read on-chain data On-chain Monitoring: Practical Guide.
Did the transaction occur entirely on-chain or does it include an OTC component?
The full details have not yet been confirmed. The swap is traceable on-chain, but it is possible that a portion was handled via OTC desks to limit the impact on the exchange order book. The transaction identifiers are currently being verified.