Quantum computing is emerging as one of the biggest long-term risks to Bitcoin’s security model.
While classical computers cannot realistically crack Bitcoin’s cryptography, experts warn that quantum machines could one day change that.
The threat comes from Shor’s algorithm, which in theory allows quantum computers to derive private keys from public ones. For now, the hardware simply isn’t advanced enough, but researchers agree the clock is ticking. Many believe the mid-2030s will mark the first serious danger window, when fault-tolerant quantum devices might reach the scale required to undermine Bitcoin’s elliptic curve cryptography.
A recent set of probability forecasts places the risk at almost negligible levels before 2030, gradually rising to about one in four by the early 2030s. The danger climbs steeply after that: between 2035 and 2039, the chance of a key-breaking machine is seen as nearly 60%. By the 2040s, the likelihood could be overwhelming, approaching certainty by mid-century if development continues unchecked.
What could bring that timeline forward are sudden breakthroughs, such as building machines with millions of reliable qubits or a successful public demonstration of Shor’s algorithm at scale. Any government shift from long-term planning to urgent migration would also be a clear signal that the risk has become immediate.
To stay ahead, specialists recommend gradual preparation rather than last-minute panic. That includes discouraging key reuse, moving coins from exposed addresses, experimenting with hybrid or post-quantum signatures before the end of the decade, and completing large-scale migration by the early 2030s. The goal is to ensure Bitcoin’s network is fully post-quantum ready well before the risk becomes real.
For now, Bitcoin remains secure. But as quantum research accelerates, its community faces a critical question: will it adapt in time, or will the very innovation driving the next era of computing expose crypto’s greatest vulnerability?
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Alex is an experienced financial journalist and cryptocurrency enthusiast. With over 8 years of experience covering the crypto, blockchain, and fintech industries, he is well-versed in the complex and ever-evolving world of digital assets. His insightful and thought-provoking articles provide readers with a clear picture of the latest developments and trends in the market. His approach allows him to break down complex ideas into accessible and in-depth content. Follow his publications to stay up to date with the most important trends and topics.
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