Pro-Bitcoin leader Machado rises in Venezuela – But Polymarket isn’t buying it

While global headlines focus on the dramatic U.S. military capture of Nicolás Maduro and his transfer to New York, another shift is happening quietly on prediction markets.

As Venezuela enters a period of uncertainty, María Corina Machado, Nobel Peace Prize winner and outspoken Bitcoin [BTC] supporter, has climbed into the top three candidates on Polymarket for Venezuela’s next leader.

Source: Polyfactual/X

With the Venezuelan bolivar having lost 99.99% of its value, Machado’s rise signals the possibility of a future in which Bitcoin becomes central to the nation’s recovery.

Remarking on the same, in a recent interview, Machado said,

“Venezuelans, the hour of freedom has arrived.”

Machado’s pro-Bitcoin stance

It’s important to note that her momentum didn’t start with Maduro’s arrest. Instead, it stems from ideas she championed long before the military operation.

In several interviews, especially in her 2024 conversation with Alex Gladstein of the Human Rights Foundation, Machado said,

“Venezuelans found a lifeline in Bitcoin during hyperinflation, using it to protect their wealth and to finance their escape.”

She added,

“It has evolved from a humanitarian tool to a vital means of resistance. We are grateful for the lifeline Bitcoin provides and look forward to embracing it in a new democratic Venezuela.”

Trump’s rejection and Polymarket’s uncertainty

Yet, despite Machado’s efforts, President Trump has effectively hit the brakes on her political momentum, explicitly confirming that she is not currently being considered to lead the transition.

He said, 

“She doesn’t have the support or respect.”

Polymarket’s betting activity also appears to echo the growing uncertainty around Venezuela’s political future.

Current data shows Machado’s chances sitting at just 19%, indicating weak market confidence in his immediate rise to power.

In contrast, Unitary Platform candidate Edmundo González Urrutia commands a stronger 24%, while Vice President Delcy Eloína Rodríguez leads the field with 34% support.

This coincided with three digital wallets on the prediction platform Polymarket executing high-risk bets on Maduro’s immediate removal.

Now, whether Venezuela chooses Machado’s Bitcoin vision or a traditional path, early 2026 proved one thing: today’s biggest geopolitical secrets surface first on the blockchain, not behind closed doors.

Final thoughts

• Machado’s Bitcoin-first vision may be radical, but it resonates with a nation that has watched its currency die in real time.
• Despite her global acclaim and Nobel recognition, real-world power dynamics, amplified by Trump’s rejection, show how fragile her political path remains.