Price predictions for Bitcoin and Ethereum- The Cryptonomist

A number of predictions are circulating these days about the short-term trend in the price of Bitcoin and Ethereum that claim it could be negative. 

In contrast, it is worth noting that over the medium term, positive predictions are circulating. 

Different predictions for different time frames: the price of Bitcoin and Ethereum

Bitcoin: the trend in the short term

In the short term, the hypotheses that seem to be circulating the most are that the price of Bitcoin could return to the levels of late March, that is, below $27,000. 

It is worth noting that in these early months of 2023 since it has risen steadily above $25,000 it has not fallen below that threshold. 

According to some, $25,000 would be precisely the support below which the price of BTC might not fall in the short to medium term. 

However, not everyone agrees with this prediction, because there are quite a few who argue that the financial markets as a whole could still return to severe distress, especially because of the global macroeconomic and financial situation. 

Among the most pessimistic there are even suggestions that it may not even hold the support of $15,000, which has held throughout the course of 2022, with a possible descent even below $12,000. 

It is worth mentioning that such a prediction has been circulating now since November, and so far has proven to be completely wrong. 

In the short term, there seem to be few who argue that the price can continue to rise, not least because the first days of May could prove difficult for the financial and crypto markets, due to some releases such as that of ETH still stuck in staking on Lido. 

Ethereum: the trend in the short term

The predictions regarding Ethereum are very similar, even though the price of ETH at the end of March ($1,700) was significantly lower than it is today ($1,850). 

In addition, support for Ethereum’s price appears to be at $1,400, which is 24% lower than the current level. For Bitcoin, on the other hand, support at $25,000 is only 8% lower than the current level. 

However, after the release of staked ETH on Lido, Ethereum could give way to Bitcoin, and the BTC price could return to influence crypto markets as it did in the first three months of the year. 

Thus, starting in the second week of May, Ethereum’s price trend may simply follow that of Bitcoin. 

Bitcoin and Ethereum: medium-term predictions

That said, the less-than-optimistic forecast in the short term leaves room for much better assumptions in the medium term. 

It is worth noting that in 2023 there has always been a need for a retracement before a strong rise. 

After the January rebound, with Bitcoin rising to nearly $24,000, there was a need for a descent all the way down to below $22,000 in order to then break through the $24,000 resistance with momentum. 

Something similar happened with $25,000, for which it even required a brief return all the way below $2,000 to break through. 

Although in early April Bitcoin managed to break above $30,000, it failed to hold that high, and it is possible that a descent all the way below $26,000 will be needed to generate enough of a bounce to make BTC rise steadily above that threshold. 

On the other hand, over the medium term the major attention thresholds are well above the $30,000 touched in early April. 

The first attention threshold is $35,000, which is a level that would be proportionately reminiscent of the level touched in May 2019. 

Dominating the medium-term prediction is always the comparison with 2019, i.e., the previous post bear-market year. There were three major growth phases then, one in April, one in May and one in June. Thereafter the price fell. 

In 2023 in April, the growth was not particularly pronounced, but probably because the price had already grown widely in the previous months. So the first phase of growth in 2023 was longer than in 2019, but similar in proportion in terms of the overall percentage of growth. 

For this reason, it does not seem at all unlikely that May 2023 will see another small bull run, similar to that of May 2019, with the price of BTC expected to rise as high as $35,000, should similar proportions continue. 

The eventual third leg of this uptrend could take the price above $40,000 in June. However, these are not true predictions, only comparisons with a similar year in the recent past. 

The altcoin landscape

Starting in the second week of May, the price trend of altcoins, including Ethereum, could simply follow that of Bitcoin, especially if a scenario similar to the one just described occurs. 

However, on the one hand there is not the slightest certainty that this could actually happen, while on the other hand it must be said that altcoins do not always slavishly follow Bitcoin. 

However, the fact that in January and March Bitcoin’s dominance made two major jumps, albeit small ones, seems to indicate that in 2023 the crypto market could be dominated by Bitcoin, with rare exceptions, such as Ethereum before the Shapella update. 

It is worth noting that among the top 30 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization, only Solana‘s SOL has performed better than BTC during 2023, but it did so after a near-vertical collapse in late 2022. All the other 28 have underperformed for now, probably precisely because it is Bitcoin that is driving the crypto markets at this stage.