Positive forecasts on the price of Bitcoin

Positive forecasts about the price of Bitcoin are starting to circulate again. 

However, there are differences especially in terms of timing, as in the short term, to be honest, there are also negative forecasts circulating.

Short-term forecasts on the price of Bitcoin

As for January 2025, there are very few forecasts suggesting that the price of Bitcoin could already take off. 

On the contrary, several are circulating that also suggest the possibility of a further correction or a retracement. 

In this regard, the problems are two. 

The first is the US dollar, still decidedly very high. Since the Dollar Index rose above 108 points, shortly after mid-December, the bullrun crypto practically came to a halt. 

The fact is that there are hypotheses circulating that the dollar may remain strong for a while longer, although it is not precisely known how long. 

The second issue is the US stock markets, which have been slightly struggling since the second half of December, after previous records, and for now do not seem to want to resume growth. The growth of Bitcoin is often accompanied by that of the American markets, and this suggests that the conditions for a takeoff may not yet be present. 

The second half of January

The second half of January could be different. 

To tell the truth, already next week, that is with the beginning of the second decade of the month, things could change, but looking at the past, the end of the month seems to be the most favorable moment. 

A first turning point could come with the inauguration of Donald Trump as USA president on January 20, even though starting from Monday the 13th something could already begin to change. 

The forecasts regarding the price of Bitcoin, however, are uncertain, so much so that there are those who say it could react positively and those who instead argue that it could react poorly. 

However, it should be remembered that even the first time Trump won the elections, in November 2016, he then took office on January 20 of the following year, and it was precisely at the end of January 2017 that the bullrun of Bitcoin resumed.

In fact, the bettors on Polymarket give a 60% probability that by the end of the month a new all-time high for the price of BTC will be recorded.

The medium-term forecasts on the price of Bitcoin

Paradoxically, regarding medium-term forecasts, a trend seems to emerge. The uncertainty obviously remains, but it appears to be less compared to the medium/short term. 

In fact, the probabilities of another all-time high for the price of Bitcoin by June rise to 80%. 

In other terms, there is more confidence in the coming months compared to the confidence in the trend of January. 

Indeed, there are those who believe that by February the 130.00$ mark could already be surpassed. 

Others argue that the run could later push even further, up to $200,000. 

According to Robert Kiyosaki, one can imagine a fork between $175,000 and $350,000.

The long-term forecasts

However, one must not forget that after a bullrun, a bear-market usually follows. 

Imagining that the bullrun could last throughout 2025, the severity of the hypothetical bear-market of 2026 largely depends on the extent of the bullrun, that is, the maximum price peak that will be reached within the bubble. 

If the extension is not particularly developed, it is not unreasonable to imagine that the next bear-market could even have a boom at $70,000. 

However, the fact that $105,000 has already been surpassed in December 2024 does indeed suggest that in the event of a bull, peaks like those suggested before could be reached. 

At this point, the bottom of the next bear-market might also stop just below $100,000, or perhaps in some extreme cases even tens of thousands of dollars above. 

The hypothesis of JPMorgan

According to JPMorgan, the recent correction in the price of Bitcoin has not affected the medium/long-term trend. 

On the contrary, they claim that BTC, along with gold, seems to have become an important component in investors’ portfolios at a structural level.

The role of Bitcoin in those portfolios, although present in minimal percentages, is to be used as a form of protection against geopolitical risk and inflation. The bank deduced this from the record capital inflow into the crypto markets in 2024.