‘Parabolic structure violated’ – Why Peter Brandt sees Bitcoin sliding toward $25K

Some renowned analysts, like Peter Brandt, believe that the Bitcoin price decline isn’t over yet. 

According to Brandt, the crypto asset could drop further to $25,000, citing a break below the parabolic structure that led to an 80% crash in the past. 

“BTC’s bull cycles have undergone parabolic advances. The violation of previous parabolas have all declined <80%. The current parabolic advance has been violated.”

Source: X/Peter Brandt

As of late December 2025, one of the major catalysts that could trigger a massive sell-off may be the exclusion of Bitcoin [BTC] treasuries, such as Strategy, from the MSCI index or the unwind of the Yen carry trade.

In other words, BTC’s next direction could be determined by the 15th of January after the MSCI index review. Still, some analysts expect a bullish momentum into the end-of-the-year and a record high in 2026. 

Grayscale’s bullish BTC outlook

But bulls, including institutions like Grayscale, expect a new all-time high above $126k in 2026. 

Unlike Brandt, the digital asset manager noted that there wasn’t a “parabolic” move in the 2022-2025 cycle, citing increased institutional adoption. 

Source: Grayscale

For Grasycale, BTC has bottomed, citing Options positioning and BTC treasury firms’ mNAVs (enterprise value relative to crypto holdings)  trading at a discount. The firm added,

“Although the outlook is uncertain, we believe the four-year cycle thesis will prove to be incorrect and that Bitcoin’s price will potentially make new highs next year.”

At the same time, Standard Chartered slashed its end-of-2025 target by half from $200k to $100k. 

This underscored a lack of consensus among analysts, further highlighting uncertainty in the short- to mid-term, noted CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju. Young Ju added, 

“Many people are asking ‘what’s next,’ but in neutral and uncertain situations like this, I believe the right approach is to maintain your own conviction, hold your existing position, and wait.”

Source: X

LTH sell-off deepens

In fact, the demand dynamics aren’t strong enough either. For example, last week, ETFs saw $287 million in Net Inflows. 

While this was positive, long-term holders (LTHs) intensified their sell-off, which reached a daily average of 279K BTC (worth over $25B).  

Source: Glassnode

That said, in the short term, the $87k and $95k/96k areas were key levels of interest with significant liquidity build-up that could attract price action. 

Source: CoinAnk

Final Thoughts

• Brandt projected a potential extended price crash to $25k, citing past breaks in parabolic structures. 
• However, Grayscale believes institutional adoption, which is under threat, could drive BTC to a new ATH in 2026.