Panic and forced selling hit Bitcoin price today as first signs of exhaustion emerge

Markets are under stress as Bitcoin price today trades near recent lows, with forced selling, thin liquidity and extreme fear dominating short-term dynamics.

Daily trend: firmly bearish, but stretched

The daily timeframe (D1) sets the macro bias, and right now that bias is clearly bearish.

Daily EMAs: trend still down, rebounds are sells for now

• Price (close D1): $76,881
• EMA 20: $86,226
• EMA 50: $89,292
• EMA 200: $97,434

Price is trading a full $9,000 below the 20-day EMA and more than $20,000 below the 200-day EMA. All three EMAs are stacked bearishly above price, with the short-term 20 EMA still well under the 50 and 200. This is the textbook configuration of a mature downtrend, where rallies into the $86–90k zone are likely to meet heavy supply until proven otherwise.

In practice, this means the market is no longer in a gentle correction; it is in a deep trend phase. Moreover, for swing traders, the path of least resistance remains down as long as BTC sits under the 20-day EMA and fails to reclaim it with conviction.

Daily RSI: extreme fear and oversold conditions

Daily RSI near 23 is firmly in oversold territory. That typically only happens during capitulation or late-stage trend phases. It tells us two things at once.

First, the selling pressure has been intense and one-sided; bears are in control of momentum. Second, we are approaching the zone where mean-reversion bounces can become violent if any good news or simple seller exhaustion appears. So, momentum is bearish, but it is also fragile: it does not take much to trigger sharp squeezes when RSI is this depressed.

Daily MACD: heavy downside momentum, but histogram easing

• MACD line (D1): -3,112.08
• Signal line (D1): -1,573.76
• Histogram (D1): -1,538.31

The MACD line is well below the signal line and both are in negative territory, confirming a strong downside momentum regime. The negative histogram shows bears still have the upper hand.

However, what matters here is not the exact numbers but the fact that the histogram is already deeply negative. When MACD gets this stretched, the risk-reward for fresh shorts deteriorates. It does not mean price cannot fall further; it means that new entries on the short side are increasingly vulnerable to a sudden snapback if momentum slows.

Daily Bollinger Bands: price walking the lower band

• BB mid (D1): $88,545
• BB lower band (D1): $77,021
• BB upper band (D1): $100,068

Bitcoin is trading right at the lower Bollinger Band, effectively riding it lower. That is what you see in trend days where price bleeds down the band instead of snapping back inside immediately.

This configuration says the market is in a downtrend with volatility expansion. It is not just drifting lower; it is doing so with bigger ranges. At the same time, trading on or below the lower band for multiple sessions often lines up with short-term exhaustion zones. Once sellers run out of fuel, price will usually revert back toward the mid-band around $88k. However, until the band flattens and price starts closing back inside, the benefit of the doubt stays with the trend.

Daily ATR: elevated volatility, larger intraday risk

An average daily range of roughly $3,500 is high even by Bitcoin standards. That speaks to a market where gaps, liquidations and stop-runs are driving price action. Position sizing matters here: what used to be a comfortably tight stop a month ago will now be noise.

Elevated ATR aligns with the emotional backdrop: Extreme Fear, heavy news flow about funds exiting, and broad risk-off in metals and other assets. It is a market where being wrong can become expensive quickly.

Daily pivot levels: price clinging to the central pivot

• Daily Pivot Point (PP): $76,572
• Resistance 1 (R1): $78,540
• Support 1 (S1): $74,913

Today’s close is hovering just above the daily pivot at $76,572. The nearest intraday resistance sits at $78,540, with first support around $74,913.

That positioning shows a market trying to stabilize around a short-term equilibrium after the breakdown below $80k. If price can hold above the pivot and start pushing toward R1, we have the first hint of buyers attempting to defend this area. A clean rejection from the pivot followed by a move under $75k would instead confirm that sellers are still in full control.

Intraday picture: pressure easing, but no confirmed reversal yet

While the daily chart shows a clear downtrend, the lower timeframes are starting to show early signs of stabilization, not yet a full reversal.

1-hour (H1): early attempt at basing

• Price (close H1): $76,789
• EMA 20: $77,089
• EMA 50: $78,678
• EMA 200: $83,600
• RSI 14: 43.62
• MACD line: -629.17 | Signal: -731.28 | Histogram: +102.11
• Bollinger mid: $77,017 | lower band: $75,652 | upper band: $78,383
• ATR 14: $1,201

On the hourly chart, Bitcoin is sitting roughly on the 20-EMA, still below the 50 and 200 EMAs. That keeps the intraday trend formally bearish, but we are not in a straight-line dump anymore.

The RSI at ~44 has crawled back out of oversold territory, indicating that the immediate panic has cooled off. More interestingly, the MACD histogram has turned positive while both lines remain below zero. That is usually what you see in the early phase of a potential short-term bottoming process: bears remain in control on a larger scale, but downside momentum is losing steam.

Bollinger Bands have the price just under the mid-band, with a lower band around $75,652. Therefore, the hourly chart is now in a range-trading posture inside a broader downtrend. ATR around $1,200 per hour tells you that even this range is wide by normal standards, and scalping without a clear plan in this environment is a quick way to be churned.

1-hour pivots: micro-battle around the pivot

• H1 Pivot Point (PP): $76,821
• R1: $76,891
• S1: $76,719

On H1, price is almost exactly on the pivot, with very tight R1 and S1 levels reflecting the recent compression after the selloff. Intraday, this is a balance zone: move and hold above R1 and we likely test the upper Bollinger band and the 50 EMA. Drop back below S1 and the lower band around $75.6k comes back into play.

15-minute (M15): execution context only

• Price (close M15): $76,789
• EMA 20: $76,490
• EMA 50: $76,694
• EMA 200: $78,521
• RSI 14: 54.48
• MACD line: +104.49 | Signal: -26.22 | Histogram: +130.71
• Bollinger mid: $76,239 | lower band: $75,087 | upper band: $77,391
• ATR 14: $533

The 15-minute chart is the only one showing a neutral regime. Price is slightly above the 20 and 50 EMAs, below the 200 EMA, with RSI hovering just above 50 and MACD clearly positive. That is the signature of a short-term relief bounce within a larger downtrend.

Volatility is still high, with ATR over $500 per 15-minute bar, but the tape here is no longer in panic mode. For active traders, this timeframe offers entries and exits, yet it does not override the bearish higher-timeframe structure. Any intraday long based on M15 strength is fighting the daily trend and must be treated as a countertrend play.

Sentiment and market context: forced de-risking, extreme fear

Outside the chart, the data and headlines line up with what the indicators are showing.

• Crypto total market cap: ~$2.67T, down about 2.9% in 24 hours.
• BTC dominance: ~57.6% – Bitcoin is leading the market, which is typical in risk-off phases.
• Fear & Greed Index: 14 – officially Extreme Fear.
• News flow: US funds shedding billions, talk of the longest losing streak since 2018, and a broader selloff in metals like silver and gold.

This is a classic macro de-risking environment: large players are cutting exposure, passive flows are turning negative, and liquidity is thinner than usual. Crypto is not alone; other risk assets are feeling the squeeze. The net effect is that technical breaks are following, not leading, the flows. Once the majority of forced sellers are done, price can stabilize much faster than sentiment recovers.

Main scenario from D1: bearish, with growing risk of a sharp countertrend rally

Putting it all together, the primary scenario based on the daily chart is bearish. Trend structure, moving averages, MACD and market regime are all aligned to the downside. At the same time, extreme readings on RSI, Bollinger Bands and sentiment warn that we are much closer to the late phase of this leg than to the beginning.

The tension right now is clear.

• Daily: strong downtrend, oversold, high volatility.
• H1: still bearish, but momentum cooling and attempting to base.
• M15: short-term bounce, useful for timing but not yet a trend change.

So the base case is more downside risk, but the payoff for blindly chasing shorts down here is deteriorating.

Bullish scenario: aggressive bounce off exhaustion levels

For the bullish side, you are essentially betting that current levels mark or precede a capitulation low in the $70–76k band.

What the bulls need to see

There are a few concrete technical steps the market would need to take.

1. Hold and defend the daily pivot around $76,500–76,800 and avoid sustained closes below S1 ($74,913). That would turn this area into a potential short-term base rather than just another waypoint lower.
2. Convert the hourly structure from bearish to neutral or bullish: price sustaining above the H1 20-EMA and then pushing into the 50-EMA near $78,600–79,000, with RSI stabilizing above 50 on H1. That would confirm that sellers are losing control of the tape.
3. First target: mean reversion toward the daily mid-Bollinger or 20-EMA zone in the high $80ks. A grind or spike back into $86–89k would be a typical reaction after such an oversold stretch.
4. Sentiment improvement from extreme fear, even modestly, often accompanies these rebounds, helped by any hint of stabilization in macro risk assets or a slowdown in ETF and fund outflows.

If these conditions play out, the narrative shifts from a waterfall selloff to an oversold bounce within a larger range. Bulls are not aiming for new highs immediately here; they are aiming first at reclaiming lost ground and forcing late shorts to cover.

What invalidates the bullish case

The bullish rebound idea starts to break down if the following developments occur.

• BTC closes decisively below daily S1 around $74,900, turning this support into resistance.
• RSI on the daily remains stuck in the low 20s or drops below 20 without a meaningful bounce, which would show that sellers still have more fuel.
• The hourly MACD rolls back over and the histogram turns negative again while price is below the H1 50-EMA, signaling that the attempt at basing has failed.

Under those conditions, any bounce would likely be a dead-cat move inside a continuing downtrend, not the start of a sustainable recovery.

Bearish scenario: continuation of the downtrend and fresh lows

The bearish scenario is effectively an extension of the current trend: the market continues to unwind leverage and risk until a lower, cleaner demand zone is found.

How a continued selloff might unfold

Technically, the path for bears is fairly straightforward in the short term.

1. Failure to hold today’s pivot band around $76k, with price slipping back under it and turning it into resistance on intraday retests.
2. Acceleration below $75k, lining up with a push through the hourly lower Bollinger band and into new local lows. High ATR would likely mean another fast, disorderly leg.
3. Daily RSI pushing deeper into the low 20s or sub-20, confirming a capitulation phase rather than just a gentle correction.
4. Macro confirmation in the form of continued ETF and fund redemptions and pressure on other risk assets, which would keep dip-buyers cautious.

In that scenario, the market is not just repricing; it is flushing. Support zones become more a matter of tape-reading than clean levels, and volatility could spike even higher than the current ATR values.

What invalidates the bearish case

The bearish continuation view gets questioned if several conditions start to line up in favor of stabilization.

• BTC reclaims and holds above the H1 50-EMA (~$78.5–79k) for several sessions, turning lower timeframes structurally neutral or bullish.
• Daily closes start to happen back inside the Bollinger Bands, moving away from the lower band and drifting toward the mid-band.
• Daily RSI climbs back above 35–40 and stays there, which would mark the end of the extreme downside momentum phase.

If those developments show up, the argument for a simple trend continuation weakens and the market shifts into a range or rebuilding phase instead.

Positioning, risk and how to think about Bitcoin price today

For traders and investors looking at Bitcoin price today near $76–77k, the key is recognizing which game you are playing and how it aligns with your time horizon.

• The trend-following game on higher timeframes still points down. Rallies into $82–90k, if they occur, will initially look like opportunities for profit-taking or fresh shorts to disciplined trend traders.
• The mean-reversion game is becoming more interesting. Daily RSI in the low 20s, price kissing the lower band and Extreme Fear readings rarely persist forever. Short-term players will be hunting for evidence of seller exhaustion to fade the move.

Both games can be valid, but they operate on different horizons and use different risk metrics. With daily ATR over $3,000, the market is telling you very clearly that your sizing and your time horizon matter more than usual. A move that looks small on the chart can translate into enormous P&L swings.

Uncertainty remains high. The news tape is negative, liquidity is patchy, and technicals are stretched but not yet reversed. In this type of environment, anchoring on a single narrative, such as assuming this must be the bottom or that it will crash much further, is usually more dangerous than admitting that we are sitting at an inflection zone where both a sharp bounce and another flush are live possibilities.

Disclaimer: This article is a market commentary and is provided for informational and educational purposes only. It is not investment, trading, or financial advice, and it should not be the sole basis for any investment decision. Cryptoassets are highly volatile and speculative; only you can assess your individual objectives, risk tolerance and financial situation.

In summary, the market is deep in a downtrend with extreme sentiment, rising volatility and conflicting signals across timeframes, making disciplined risk management more important than directional conviction.