Optimistic forecasts for Bitcoin: where will BTC go?

Various optimistic forecasts about the price of Bitcoin are starting to circulate. 

However, it is necessary to make a couple of important clarifications to avoid excess enthusiasm that could mislead investors’ operational decisions. 

The situation indeed appears rosy because it probably is, but it is not certain that the current scenario is destined to last long. 

Bitcoin: the optimistic forecasts

At this moment, there are indeed many analysts who are optimistic about the price trend of Bitcoin in the medium-short term. 

Regarding the expected prices, there is no consensus, so much so that it would make little sense to report all the predictions concerning the cycle’s peak. 

However, one can specifically mention that of the chief analyst of Standard Chartered, Geoff Kendrick, because it went viral on the web over the weekend. According to Kendrick, the price of Bitcoin could push up to $135,000 in this phase, and it might even end up reaching $200,000 by the end of the year. 

It should be added, however, that other analysts point to different figures, often more cautious than those of Kendrick, who in the past has proven to be particularly optimistic about BTC. 

Many still argue that the top of this cycle has not yet been reached, despite the new all-time high hit on Saturday above $125,000.

The Dollar

At this moment, the price of Bitcoin is moving differently than usual. 

In fact, starting from August 29, it had always moved in tandem with the Dollar Index, obviously in the opposite direction. The price trend of BTC tends to be inversely correlated with that of DXY.

However, starting from last Wednesday, which was the first of October, this alignment seems to have temporarily ended. 

The Dollar Index rose from 97.7 points to 98.2, and Bitcoin not only did not fall accordingly but even rose, completely against the trend. 

However, it should be added that the Dollar Index is expected to decline by the end of the year, and this could give further momentum to the bull run of Bitcoin. 

All this fully justifies the optimistic forecasts of several analysts. 

The cryptocurrency market has been experiencing significant fluctuations recently, with both bull and bear trends influencing investor sentiment. Analysts suggest that the current market conditions are driven by a combination of macroeconomic factors and technological advancements within the blockchain space. As Bitcoin continues to dominate the market, altcoins are also gaining traction, offering diverse opportunities for traders and investors. Market participants are advised to stay informed and consider both fundamental and technical analysis when making investment decisions.

The Timing

The first important clarification that needs to be made concerns the timing. 

Taking 2017 as a reference, the great bull run lasted from the first week of October until mid-December. Then it was followed by an initial strong retracement, which brought the price of BTC into a full bear market, and then at the end of 2018 by a real collapse that brought it to almost -85% from the highs. 

In fact, it was in October that a mega speculative bubble began to inflate, lasting for less than two and a half months, and then inevitably ended up bursting and completely vanishing over the course of the following eleven months. 

The current situation in some ways seems similar, if only for the fact that this year is also the first year of Trump’s presidency.

The situation of the Dollar Index at that time was in some ways comparable to the current one, so it would not be surprising if a similar pattern were followed. 

However, it should also be added that over the course of the following two years, not only did the price of Bitcoin end up bouncing back to reclaim the highs of 2017, but by the end of 2020, those highs were surpassed once again. 

The Excess of Enthusiasm

The second clarification concerns the causes that have led to the decoupling from the trend of the Dollar Index starting from the first of October. 

It indeed seems that the primary cause is a kind of excessive enthusiasm, probably due to and especially because of the aforementioned forecasts. 

The idea that the Dollar Index could drop significantly by the end of the year might have convinced many speculators to enter BTC at this moment precisely with the aim of taking advantage of the possible bubble. 

However, these are short-term or at most medium-short-term positions, aimed at selling by the end of 2025. 

The problem is that enthusiasm is an emotion that can come and go very quickly. In other words, it is not entirely possible to rule out that such an excess of enthusiasm might suddenly vanish in the coming days or weeks, potentially invalidating the aforementioned forecasts.

To tell the truth, at this precise moment there doesn’t seem to be any signal indicating the possible dissolution of this enthusiasm, but the situation from this point of view could theoretically change very quickly. 

2026

All this, however, is compatible with a 2026 perhaps characterized by a bear-market. 

On the other hand, while in the short to medium term the price trend of Bitcoin can diverge from that of the Dollar Index, in the medium term, however, it has always tended to realign, obviously in an inversely correlated manner. 

The same forecasts that indicate a possible further decline in the Dollar Index by the end of the year also suggest a potential rebound next year, especially since the mid-term elections will be held in the USA. 

During election periods, incumbent U.S. presidents find a strong dollar convenient for propaganda purposes, making a rebound of the Dollar Index in 2026 even more likely. 

This on one hand might not concern speculators who are entering just to exploit the medium-short term trend, but it will certainly interest Bitcoin holders.