- Long-term holders are not selling, and short-term investors are leaving the market; hence the network activity suffers.
- When price action is analyzed per halving cycle, the market behaves the same.
Bitcoin is currently trading at $16,751.48; rumors are circulating that it may soon touch the $12,000 mark – only time will. Crypto analyst David Puell says that BTC only requires one more key on-chain signal, and then it will show a classic bull run.
David said in a December 17 tweet that the stage is more or less set for the end of the bear market for the price of the most popular cryptocurrency.
There are speculations that BTC might touch its low at the $12,000 mark this cycle, and not everyone is going full bullish mode for Bitcoin outlook.
Puell pointed out two important on-chain phenomena required for Bitcoin’s price recovery from its current state.
Firstly, Long-term holders (LTHs) are fighting the urge to sell, even though BTC is down by almost 70% from its last all-time high.
Secondly, the Short-term “speculators” are feeling intense pain due to current price action. Media reports show these “tourists” have majorly left the market.
The combined study of these indicates a paucity of network traffic from all the participants.
If favorable macro conditions are created, it should aid the required turnaround. Also, crypto may become strong against contagion in the form of “exogenous and endogenous swans.”
At the time of writing, BTC was trading at $16,761.86 and is up by 0.09% in twenty-four hours.
In the year 2023, the BTC network is about to see its next halving cycle. Roughly every 4 years, the reward ratio on mining 1 block is halved. In 2009, a miner would get 50 BTC for mining one block after the second halving in 2013, the reward was reduced to 25 BTC, then further reduced to 12.5 BTC in the third halving in 2016 and the fourth halving in 2020 saw the reward reduce to 6.25. The next halving is scheduled for 2023 and might reduce the reward to 3.125 BTC.
When the price of the coin is compared with every halving cycle, evidence comes forward in the form of Bitcoin’s MVRV-z score. An expression of market value to realized value in standard deviations. Dilution-proof is initially called “market-Value-to-Realized-Value Temperature (MVRVT).
A recent study of accompanying charts showed indications towards a classic bear market bottom formation.
“Bitcoin is just doing what it does at this time post-hlving date literally every cycle.”
Source: https://www.thecoinrepublic.com/2022/12/19/on-chain-signal-required-for-btc-bull-market-david-puell/