No euphoria so far – Could this be Bitcoin’s most subtle top yet?

• Bitcoin was closing in on a key resistance on the MVRV Z-Score, a turning point in past cycles. 
• Will this resistance shut down the rally?

The Fear and Greed Index has yet to flash “extreme greed.”

It is a zone that historically aligns with Bitcoin [BTC] cycle tops. In the past three all-time highs, this sentiment peak coincided with tightening liquidity and supply consolidation, pushing BTC into overheated conditions. 

So, does the current absence of euphoria suggest the market still has fuel left? Possibly. But when paired with Bitcoin’s MVRV Z-Score now pressing against a critical resistance, it may signal that the market is nearing an inflection point.

For context, the MVRV Z-Score compares Bitcoin’s market value to its average on-chain cost basis. When the score is high, it means holders are sitting on big unrealized gains. That’s usually fine, until enough of them decide to take profits.

Source: Bitcoin Magazine Pro

Sure, so far the Z-Score remains well below the red zone that historically marks macro tops, where the spread between market cap and realized cap stretches into overheated territory. But here’s where the structure breaks.

Even after Bitcoin hit six figures and logged two fresh all-time highs, the Z-Score stayed relatively muted. No sign of extreme overextension. And yet, the market dropped, with pullbacks over 20%. 

According to AMBCrypto, this points to a critical shift, suggesting a new market variable is in play.

Low euphoria, high risk: A new kind of Bitcoin top?

In past rallies, FOMO took over. In turn, the Fear & Greed Index shot into “extreme greed,” and Bitcoin went vertical, until the market dumped. This time? The index is still nowhere near euphoric levels, and yet Bitcoin’s struggling to take off.

Why? Macro uncertainty is spooking the market, capping speculative appetite, and with margins under pressure, investors appear more inclined to de-risk and lock in gains.

Bitcoin’s only about 7% above the short-term holders’ cost basis at $98,000. Without a confirmed structural bottom and volatility still anchored to macro risk, FOMO is hanging by a thread. 

Source: Glassnode

If that thread breaks? Well, Bitcoin could be staring down the most subtle market top yet.