Bitcoin (BTC) is not anticipated to have a significant upward impetus for at least the rest of this year, according to digital asset manager CoinShares.
The US dollar index (DXY), which measures the dollar’s strength or weakness relative to a broad range of other fiat currencies, may have further to run in its multi-month climb, according to a new study from CoinShares.
What’s Ahead For Bitcoin (BTC) Price
The value of Bitcoin and other risky assets tends to fall when the DXY index rises.
The first is that a recession is by no means guaranteed; the DXY is pricey but could appreciate further in the near future. It suggests that the US terminal rate for monetary policy (according to consensus) will peak before that of its key trading partners, which is consistent with the expectation of poorer economic statistics in the US. This suggests that the DXY will reach its annual high near the year’s end.
“Except for an unexpected deterioration in macroeconomic data, bitcoin prices are unlikely to have a large upside breakout this year due to their strong negative correlation to the DXY.”
Another factor working against Bitcoin (BTC) is the main crypto asset manager’s prediction that the Federal Reserve’s aggressive monetary policy is unlikely to reverse any time soon.
Third, he stated that the US Federal Reserve (FED) is not about to “flip” to a weaker inflation target, contrary to widespread expectations following the recent Jackson Hole summit. The value of the dollar and other assets that are sensitive to changes in interest rates, like stocks and bitcoin, reacted swiftly to this news.
Fourth is noted as long the FED continues to speak in a hawkish tone, the price of bitcoin will remain under pressure until the central bank decides the macroeconomic data warrants a change in policy.
No Relief in 2022
Unless there is some sort of “surprise worsening in macroeconomic indicators,” CoinShares predicts that Bitcoin will continue to be under pressure.
Approximately 72% below its all-time high of $69,000, Bitcoin is now trading at $19,178 at the time of writing.
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Source: https://coinpedia.org/bitcoin/no-bitcoin-bull-run-in-2022-this-is-what-btc-traders-can-expect/