New Whales Trigger $8B Bitcoin Selloff in Third Major Bull Run Surge

Key Insights:

• Realized profits hit $6–8B in July, led by new whales exiting above $120K
• Whale supply shrinks by 502K BTC amid rising institutional absorption
• Recession indicators flash early warning as corporate BTC holdings grow

Bitcoin just experienced its third significant profit realization event of the ongoing bull run, with realized profits spiking to $6–8 billion. 

This latest wave, recorded in late July, matches levels seen during the March and December 2024 peaks. According to CryptoQuant, it was largely driven by new whales selling above $120,000.

Data shows these profit spikes align with sharp price increases and growing volatility across the market. 

New whale cohorts locked in massive profits, while old whales remained relatively inactive. The realized profit surge also highlights a maturing market structure absorbing large sell-offs.

Axel Adler Jr. noted that over the past year, whales holding over 1,000 BTC reduced supply by 502,000 BTC. 

Yet strong institutional demand and continued accumulation have supported price resilience. This structural shift suggests capital rotation from legacy holders to long-term institutional buyers.

Institutions Absorb Supply While Recession Signals Grow

Despite heavy profit-taking, institutional flows continued to drive long-term stability in the crypto market. 

According to SoSoValue and BitcoinTreasuries, public companies added $47.3 billion in Bitcoin during 2025, outpacing ETF inflows of $31.7 billion. Key buyers included STRATEGY with $12B and Metaplanet with 17,000 BTC holdings.

Meanwhile, U.S. recession probability has begun to edge higher, according to Alphractal using New York Fed data. 

Though not extreme, previous upticks at these levels preceded major downturns like the Dot-com bust and the 2008 crisis. Analysts warn investors to remain cautious despite equities trading near all-time highs.

Recession risks, combined with macro uncertainty, may explain the latest whale exit as large holders de-risk above major price levels. Still, new players are stepping in with growing confidence and capital. As a result, Bitcoin continues to show strong support despite supply pressure and shifting market hands.