Morning Minute: Ghost Month Returns – Will Bitcoin Buck the Trend?

Morning Minute is a daily newsletter written by Tyler Warner. The analysis and opinions expressed are his own and do not necessarily reflect those of Decrypt. Subscribe to the Morning Minute on Substack.

GM!

Today’s top news:

• Crypto majors are red again, down another 2%; BTC at $113,200
• Wyoming introduces its stablecoin FRNT, first-ever from a public entity
• Goldman Sachs says stablecoin market will hit trillions
• Bullish holds $1B+ in stables after receiving them via IPO
• Robinhood partners with Kalshi for NFL prediction markets

👻 Ghost Month Returns: Will Bitcoin Buck the Trend?

Ghost Month begins in 3 days.

And historically, that’s been bad news for Bitcoin.

📌 What Happened

The 7th lunar month, known as Ghost Month, kicks off this weekend (Aug 23 – Sep 20).

In many Asian cultures, it’s a time when spirits are believed to roam the earth – and when investors traditionally avoid making big financial moves.

This superstition has bled into markets, and the data backs it up:

• Since 2015, Bitcoin has averaged a -12% return during Ghost Month.
• Some of the worst selloffs came in 2017 (-39.8%) during China’s ICO ban, and in 2021 (-23%) following the mining crackdown.
• Even in bull years, like 2019 and 2024, the pattern held: mid-month drawdowns of 12-19% before late recoveries.
• On average, trading volumes dip in Asia, liquidity thins, and volatility spikes.

So far in 2025, Bitcoin has already slid about 10% from its $124K peak, with open interest dropping sharply. And notably, it’s sold off during the Korean open (~7 pm ET) every day this week.

📝 By The Numbers

Here’s a year-by-year breakdown of Bitcoin’s performance during Ghost Month since 2015.

Yeah – it’s not great.

🧠 Why It Matters

Of course, past performance is not representative of the future.

But… a 10-year sample size with similar outcomes seems telling.

The wildcard this year – Powell speaks at Jackson Hole just a day before Ghost Month kicks off.

If he signals rate cuts are coming in September, then this might be the best Ghost Month in Bitcoin’s history.

If he’s overly hawkish – there’s a good chance Ghost Month plays out.

That means choppy price action and more dips.

But there’s also a silver lining.

History suggests that while Ghost Month often delivers pain in the short term, it can also set the stage for powerful rebounds once sentiment clears (i.e. 2017 and 2021).

So these Ghost Month dips are for buying.

Now let’s just hope things don’t get too spooky…

🌎 Macro Crypto and Memes

A few Crypto and Web3 headlines that caught my eye:

• Crypto majors were red again on the day; BTC -2% at $113,200, ETH -3% at $4,175, XRP -5% at $2.87, SOL -2% at $179.
• OKB (+2%) and PUMP (+2%) led top movers.
• The State of Wyoming launched its Frontier Stable Token (FRNT), the first stablecoin ever issued by a U.S. public entity.
• Anthony Scarmucci announced that SkyBridge Capital will tokenize two of its funds on AVAX.
• Goldman Sachs stated that the market for stablecoins is in the trillions.
• Air Canada’s Pension Fund disclosed a $161M BTC position.
• Trump Jr.-backed crypto treasury firm Thumzup is acquiring Dogehash Technologies, aiming to merge into a large-scale Dogecoin‑Litecoin mining operation.
• Bullish holds $1.15 B in stablecoins after receiving IPO funds via stables (instead of fiat) primarily in USDC on Solana and RLUSD on the XRP Ledger.
• Robinhood listed SUI for trading.

In Corporate Treasuries

• Sharplink acquired 143,593 ETH in the past week at an average of $4,648, now holding 741k in total.
• David Bailey’s Nakamoto announced 5,744 BTC ($679M) purchased at an average price of $118,204.

In Memes

• Memecoin leaders are red on the day; DOGE -3%, Shiba -3%, PEPE -4%, PENGU -8%, BONK -4%, TRUMP -3%, SPX -3%, and FARTCOIN -4%.
• LIGHT dropped 12% to $100M market cap as revenue came in at just $200k on the day (2nd behind PUMP’s $1.2M).

💰 Token, Airdrop & Protocol Tracker

Here’s a rundown of major token, protocol and airdrop news from the day:

🤖 AI x Crypto

Section dedicated to headlines in the AI sector of crypto:

• Overall market cap down 1% to $12.5B, leaders were red.
• FARTCOIN (-4%), VIRTUAL (-3%), TIBBIR (-3%), ai16z (-3%) & VVV (+1%).
• MIRAI (+14%), Project89 (+13%) and Nuit (+10%) led top movers.

🚚 What is happening in NFTs?

Here is the list of other notable headlines from the day in NFTs:

• ETH NFT leaders were mostly green; Punks -3% at 47.4 ETH, Pudgy +1% at 12.44, BAYC +1% at 11.4 ETH.
• Meebits (+10%) and Yumemono (+18%) were notable top movers.
• Bitcoin NFTs were mostly red or even; OMB +5%.
• Abstract NFTs were mostly red, led by BUUMEE (+56%).