Morgan Stanley strategists describe Bitcoin’s four-year cycle as seasonal phases, with the current ‘fall’ period signaling time for investors to secure gains before a potential crypto winter downturn.
Bitcoin recently dipped below $99,000, entering a technical bear market by breaching its 365-day moving average, a key sentiment indicator.
Crypto liquidity drivers like stablecoins, ETFs, and digital asset treasuries have plateaued, contributing to market stalls.
Institutional investors view Bitcoin as digital gold and an inflation hedge, with spot ETFs managing over $137 billion in assets.
Bitcoin’s four-year cycle enters ‘fall’ phase per Morgan Stanley—harvest gains before winter. Explore expert insights on market rhythms and institutional optimism. Stay informed on crypto trends today.
What is Bitcoin’s Four-Year Cycle and Its Current Phase?
Bitcoin’s four-year cycle refers to the recurring pattern in its price movements tied to halving events every four years, which reduce mining rewards and historically influence supply dynamics. According to Morgan Stanley’s Denny Galindo, the market follows a “three-up, one-down” rhythm, with phases likened to seasons. Currently, Bitcoin is in the “fall season,” a period of harvesting gains before an anticipated “winter” downturn, urging investors to take profits amid recent price dips.
How Does the ‘Fall Season’ Signal a Potential Crypto Winter?
The “fall season” in Bitcoin’s four-year cycle represents a transitional phase where gains from prior bull runs are consolidated, but risks of decline increase. Historical data analyzed by Morgan Stanley strategists show this pattern repeating, with the last three cycles featuring strong uptrends followed by corrections. Denny Galindo, an investment strategist at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, explained in a recent podcast discussion that “we are in the fall season right now—fall is the time for harvest, so it’s the time you want to take your gains.” He cautioned that the duration of this phase remains uncertain, with winter potentially bringing deeper declines as liquidity tightens.
Supporting this view, Bitcoin’s price action on November 5 fell below $99,000, breaching its 365-day moving average—a critical technical indicator of long-term sentiment, as noted by CryptoQuant head of research Julio Moreno. This drop is interpreted as a strong bearish signal, officially marking a technical bear market according to Bitrue research analyst Andri Fauzan Adziima. Such metrics underscore the cyclical nature, where overextension in bull phases often leads to corrections, with past winters seeing BTC prices drop up to 80% from peaks.
Market liquidity factors further highlight the shift. Crypto market-maker Wintermute reported in a recent analysis that inflows from stablecoins, exchange-traded funds (ETFs), and digital asset treasuries have stalled after strong growth. These sources have been pivotal in driving crypto liquidity, but their plateau suggests reduced momentum, aligning with the seasonal analogy of preparing for harsher conditions ahead.
Bitcoin price action in 2025. Source: TradingView
Despite these warnings, the cyclical framework draws parallels to traditional markets, like commodities influenced by seasonal demand or macroeconomic liquidity cycles. Wall Street’s adoption of this lens for Bitcoin’s four-year cycle reflects growing recognition of its maturity as an asset class.
Frequently Asked Questions
What Does Breaching Bitcoin’s 365-Day Moving Average Mean for Investors?
Breaching the 365-day moving average indicates a shift to bearish territory in Bitcoin’s four-year cycle, signaling potential prolonged downside as long-term sentiment sours. Investors should consider reducing exposure and securing profits, as historical data shows such breaks often precede deeper corrections lasting months, with BTC recovering only after capitulation phases.
Why Are Institutional Investors Still Bullish on Bitcoin as an Inflation Hedge?
Hey, if you’re wondering about institutional views on Bitcoin, experts at Morgan Stanley highlight it as digital gold protecting against inflation and currency devaluation. With ETFs simplifying access, billions have flowed in—over $137 billion for spot Bitcoin funds alone—making it a staple in diversified portfolios despite volatility.
Key Takeaways
- Seasonal Analogy for Cycles: Morgan Stanley’s Denny Galindo frames Bitcoin’s four-year cycle as seasons, with the current “fall” urging profit-taking before “winter.”
- Technical Bear Market Confirmed: The dip below $99,000 and 365-day moving average breach signals bearish momentum, backed by liquidity stalls in stablecoins and ETFs.
- Institutional Optimism Persists: View Bitcoin as a macro hedge; spot ETFs have amassed $137 billion in AUM, lowering entry barriers for large investors.
Conclusion
As Bitcoin’s four-year cycle navigates its “fall” phase, Morgan Stanley’s insights emphasize prudent strategies like harvesting gains amid technical bear signals and liquidity plateaus. Institutional adoption continues to grow, positioning Bitcoin as a key inflation hedge with ETF inflows surpassing $137 billion. Investors should monitor these rhythms closely—staying informed could guide smarter decisions in the evolving crypto landscape ahead.