Miners dump Bitcoin, but whales keep buying – Who will win?

Key Takeaways

Bitcoin currently favors a bullish continuation, with $115.9k as the breakout trigger. Meanwhile, miner selling pressure was outweighed by strong exchange outflows, signaling accumulation.

Bitcoin’s [BTC] price was trading at $112.6k at press time, moving within the narrow range defined by the 0.85 and 0.94 quantile cost basis band, between $104.1k and $114.1k. 

This zone signals a phase of post-euphoria consolidation, often creating indecisive conditions for traders. 

A decisive break below the $108k support could expose weakness, while reclaiming $115.9k may unlock upside potential toward $122.7k and $124k. 

Bitcoin is at a pivotal juncture right now, where technical structure and investor conviction must align to fuel a sustainable breakout.

Source: Glassnode/BTC Risk Indicator

Will Bitcoin respect the ascending trendline?

Bitcoin’s price action continues to respect its ascending channel structure, with the lower boundary acting as reliable support. 

Currently, the $108k level anchors its downside protection, while the $115.9k resistance remains the key barrier that bulls must reclaim. 

A successful break above this resistance could drive momentum toward the $122.7k target. However, failure to hold the channel support may invite renewed selling pressure. 

The RSI reading near 48 underscores indecision, suggesting Bitcoin price could either extend consolidation or prepare for a trend-defining breakout.

Source: TradingView/BTC/USD 1-Day Chart

Miner outflows increase 

Miners are increasingly influencing Bitcoin’s price through heightened activity reflected in the Miners’ Position Index (MPI), which surged 62% within 24 hours. 

This sharp rise signals that miners are accelerating their outflows relative to yearly averages, injecting potential supply pressure into the market. 

Historically, spikes in MPI often coincide with local price corrections as additional coins enter circulation. 

However, if broader demand holds firm, this selling could be absorbed without disrupting the prevailing uptrend. Miner behavior is now a critical factor in determining short-term Bitcoin price direction.

Source: CryptoQuant

Continued outflows from exchanges

While miners increased selling, exchange activity painted a contrasting picture, with Bitcoin spot netflows showing consistent outflows. 

The latest data highlighted a $39.9 millionoutflow, underscoring accumulation behavior as investors move holdings into self-custody. 

These sustained outflows reduce immediate sell pressure and signal conviction among larger holders. However, the tug-of-war between miner selling and investor accumulation creates a delicate balance. 

Therefore, spot market behavior will likely decide whether Bitcoin price can overcome resistance levels or retreat back toward the $108k support threshold.

Source: CoinGlass

Is Bitcoin ready to break higher?

Though Bitcoin is currently consolidating tightly, the evidence tilts in favor of a bullish continuation.

Its ascending trendline remained intact at press time, with exchange outflows confirming accumulation and buyer conviction outweighing miner selling pressure. 

With support at $108k holding firm and momentum building, Bitcoin looks well-positioned to reclaim $115.9k and extend gains toward $122.7k and $124k.