Bearish trends persist as Bitcoin’s fair value targets shift amid changing economic policies.
Key takeaways
- The market is expected to continue experiencing bearish conditions, with fewer bulls remaining.
- Reaching a macro low in the market will take time and won’t lead to immediate buying pressure.
- The market is not yet at a macro low, indicating further potential declines.
- Significant entry opportunities in the market occur every three to six months.
- The market was showing signs of a lopsided structure with increasing leverage and long-term holders exiting.
- Bitcoin’s fair value is targeted around $65,000, with potential changes due to the incoming Fed chair.
- The new Fed president’s policies may not align with market expectations of aggressive rate cuts.
- Reducing the Fed’s balance sheet is a form of quantitative tightening that contradicts anticipated policies.
- The current economic environment may not be favorable for crypto due to potential shifts in monetary policy.
- A significant drop in the stock market could lead to increased layoffs and a potential shift in interest rates.
- The labor market appears weak despite low unemployment rates, suggesting a potential recession.
- Global liquidity is decreasing, which is detrimental for risk-on assets like crypto.
- The market value to realized value ratio is currently at 1.4, indicating it has room to move before reaching a buy signal.
- Long-term holders are starting to re-enter the market, which could signal a shift towards a new bull cycle.
- Bitcoin has historically acted as a liquidity index, often following the movements of the Nasdaq.
Guest intro
Michael Nadeau is the founder of The DeFi Report, a research and media company focused on decentralized finance and digital assets. He previously served as Director of Ecosystem Strategy at Inveniam, bridging crypto and traditional capital markets, and held finance and accounting roles at Boston Properties and MIT Investment Management Company. Nadeau provides institutional-grade analysis on Bitcoin cycles, on-chain metrics, and macro signals through his newsletter and advisory services.
Understanding current market conditions
The market is likely to continue experiencing bearish conditions, with fewer bulls remaining.
— Michael Nadeau
Reaching a macro low in the market will take time and won’t lead to immediate buying pressure.
— Michael Nadeau
The market is not yet at a macro low, indicating further potential declines.
— Michael Nadeau
There are significant entry opportunities in the market every three to six months.
— Michael Nadeau
The market was showing signs of a lopsided structure with increasing leverage and long-term holders exiting.
— Michael Nadeau
The influx of price agnostic buyers allowed traders to leverage positions without caution.
— Michael Nadeau
Bitcoin’s fair value is targeted around $65,000, and the current market conditions suggest a potential new regime due to the incoming Fed chair.
— Michael Nadeau
The current market structure and reduction in demand led to a risk-off strategy, which was validated by subsequent market movements.
— Michael Nadeau
Implications of monetary policy changes
The new Fed president’s policies may not align with market expectations of aggressive rate cuts.
— Michael Nadeau
Reducing the Fed’s balance sheet is a form of quantitative tightening that contradicts the anticipated policies.
— Michael Nadeau
The current economic environment may not be favorable for crypto due to potential shifts in monetary policy.
— Michael Nadeau
A significant drop in the stock market could lead to increased layoffs and a potential shift in interest rates.
— Michael Nadeau
The Federal Reserve’s approach to monetary policy could determine the future of economic recovery and its impact on crypto.
— Michael Nadeau
The labor market appears weak despite low unemployment rates, suggesting a potential recession.
— Michael Nadeau
The lack of yield curve control and the absence of buying long-end treasuries could lead to significant economic shifts.
— Michael Nadeau
Global liquidity and its impact on crypto
Global liquidity is decreasing, which is detrimental for risk-on assets like crypto.
— Michael Nadeau
The current liquidity dynamics favor gold and precious metals over crypto due to differing monetary policies in the US and China.
— Michael Nadeau
The economy is likely to roll over, leading to the Fed cutting rates.
— Michael Nadeau
Populism is a critical factor to monitor in the current US political landscape.
— Michael Nadeau
We may be entering a different economic regime based on current monetary policy discussions.
— Michael Nadeau
There’s a possibility that the Federal Reserve will revert to their traditional methods despite current rhetoric.
— Michael Nadeau
Market cycles and long-term holder behavior
The current wealth destruction phase in crypto is likely to last about a year.
— Michael Nadeau
Wealth destruction phases can be volatile and may not follow a consistent downward trend.
— Michael Nadeau
The market value to realized value ratio is currently at 1.4, indicating it has room to move before reaching a buy signal.
— Michael Nadeau
Long-term holders are starting to re-enter the market, which could signal a shift towards a new bull cycle.
— Michael Nadeau
The supply held by long-term holders typically decreases during wealth distribution and increases as new buyers enter the market.
— Michael Nadeau
Bitcoin’s relationship with traditional markets
The market may take about a year to align with historical cycles and metrics.
— Michael Nadeau
The fair value of Bitcoin is roughly around $65,000, based on key metrics.
— Michael Nadeau
The market is unlikely to see significant changes in the near future, with low chances of interest rate cuts from the Fed.
— Michael Nadeau
Bitcoin has historically acted as a liquidity index, often following the movements of the Nasdaq.
— Michael Nadeau
Gold and silver are likely to continue to rise relative to crypto assets due to the current economic conditions.
— Michael Nadeau
Investment strategies during market downturns
The ratio of Bitcoin to the Nasdaq composite index reflects the cyclical nature of Bitcoin’s price movements compared to traditional stocks.
— Michael Nadeau
If Bitcoin continues to decline, it is likely that the Nasdaq will also experience a sell-off.
— Michael Nadeau
Bitcoin is likely to bottom around the same time as the Nasdaq, potentially leading to a sell-off.
— Michael Nadeau
The historical performance of Bitcoin relative to Nasdaq and gold suggests that current market behavior is consistent with previous cycles.
— Michael Nadeau
The crypto market experiences bear phases that are exacerbated by the mimetic nature of assets, where belief and confidence can quickly shift.
— Michael Nadeau
Opportunities in periods of disillusionment
We are entering a period of disillusionment in the crypto market, which presents investment opportunities.
— Michael Nadeau
Investors in crypto need to be anchored to data while also understanding the unique intangibles of the asset class.
— Michael Nadeau
Bitcoin serves as a foundational asset that influences the rest of the altcoin market.
— Michael Nadeau
We allocate investment based on a structured approach with different sleeves for varying risk levels.
— Michael Nadeau
Michael Nadeau believes that certain assets can outperform Bitcoin.
— Michael Nadeau
Strategic investment approaches
Nadeau suggests a gradual investment strategy by scaling into positions.
— Michael Nadeau
Ether’s price target has been set based on its recent performance.
— Michael Nadeau
There are expected opportunities in the crypto market in 2026.
— Michael Nadeau
Bear markets provide better opportunities for analysis and understanding of the market.
— Michael Nadeau
It’s challenging to outperform Bitcoin through a market cycle.
— Michael Nadeau
Bitcoin’s potential and the future of finance
Bitcoin needs to demonstrate a significant change in behavior for the market to signal a bottom.
— Michael Nadeau
A typical market bottom is characterized by capitulation followed by a period of quiet and apathy.
— Michael Nadeau
A retracement rally in Bitcoin’s price is likely due to current oversold conditions.
— Michael Nadeau
The market structure is lopsided due to weak hands, which prevents Bitcoin from reaching previous highs.
— Michael Nadeau
Bitcoin could exceed $1,000,000 in the long term.
— Michael Nadeau
Integration of blockchain into finance
The transition of the entire financial system to crypto rails is inevitable.
— Michael Nadeau
Periods of market disillusionment present buying opportunities for long-term investors.
— Michael Nadeau
Bear markets present unique opportunities for investment in the right assets.
— Michael Nadeau
The deployment of blockchain technology into finance is progressing despite current market challenges.
— Michael Nadeau
Bearish trends persist as Bitcoin’s fair value targets shift amid changing economic policies.
Key takeaways
- The market is expected to continue experiencing bearish conditions, with fewer bulls remaining.
- Reaching a macro low in the market will take time and won’t lead to immediate buying pressure.
- The market is not yet at a macro low, indicating further potential declines.
- Significant entry opportunities in the market occur every three to six months.
- The market was showing signs of a lopsided structure with increasing leverage and long-term holders exiting.
- Bitcoin’s fair value is targeted around $65,000, with potential changes due to the incoming Fed chair.
- The new Fed president’s policies may not align with market expectations of aggressive rate cuts.
- Reducing the Fed’s balance sheet is a form of quantitative tightening that contradicts anticipated policies.
- The current economic environment may not be favorable for crypto due to potential shifts in monetary policy.
- A significant drop in the stock market could lead to increased layoffs and a potential shift in interest rates.
- The labor market appears weak despite low unemployment rates, suggesting a potential recession.
- Global liquidity is decreasing, which is detrimental for risk-on assets like crypto.
- The market value to realized value ratio is currently at 1.4, indicating it has room to move before reaching a buy signal.
- Long-term holders are starting to re-enter the market, which could signal a shift towards a new bull cycle.
- Bitcoin has historically acted as a liquidity index, often following the movements of the Nasdaq.
Guest intro
Michael Nadeau is the founder of The DeFi Report, a research and media company focused on decentralized finance and digital assets. He previously served as Director of Ecosystem Strategy at Inveniam, bridging crypto and traditional capital markets, and held finance and accounting roles at Boston Properties and MIT Investment Management Company. Nadeau provides institutional-grade analysis on Bitcoin cycles, on-chain metrics, and macro signals through his newsletter and advisory services.
Understanding current market conditions
The market is likely to continue experiencing bearish conditions, with fewer bulls remaining.
— Michael Nadeau
Reaching a macro low in the market will take time and won’t lead to immediate buying pressure.
— Michael Nadeau
The market is not yet at a macro low, indicating further potential declines.
— Michael Nadeau
There are significant entry opportunities in the market every three to six months.
— Michael Nadeau
The market was showing signs of a lopsided structure with increasing leverage and long-term holders exiting.
— Michael Nadeau
The influx of price agnostic buyers allowed traders to leverage positions without caution.
— Michael Nadeau
Bitcoin’s fair value is targeted around $65,000, and the current market conditions suggest a potential new regime due to the incoming Fed chair.
— Michael Nadeau
The current market structure and reduction in demand led to a risk-off strategy, which was validated by subsequent market movements.
— Michael Nadeau
Implications of monetary policy changes
The new Fed president’s policies may not align with market expectations of aggressive rate cuts.
— Michael Nadeau
Reducing the Fed’s balance sheet is a form of quantitative tightening that contradicts the anticipated policies.
— Michael Nadeau
The current economic environment may not be favorable for crypto due to potential shifts in monetary policy.
— Michael Nadeau
A significant drop in the stock market could lead to increased layoffs and a potential shift in interest rates.
— Michael Nadeau
The Federal Reserve’s approach to monetary policy could determine the future of economic recovery and its impact on crypto.
— Michael Nadeau
The labor market appears weak despite low unemployment rates, suggesting a potential recession.
— Michael Nadeau
The lack of yield curve control and the absence of buying long-end treasuries could lead to significant economic shifts.
— Michael Nadeau
Global liquidity and its impact on crypto
Global liquidity is decreasing, which is detrimental for risk-on assets like crypto.
— Michael Nadeau
The current liquidity dynamics favor gold and precious metals over crypto due to differing monetary policies in the US and China.
— Michael Nadeau
The economy is likely to roll over, leading to the Fed cutting rates.
— Michael Nadeau
Populism is a critical factor to monitor in the current US political landscape.
— Michael Nadeau
We may be entering a different economic regime based on current monetary policy discussions.
— Michael Nadeau
There’s a possibility that the Federal Reserve will revert to their traditional methods despite current rhetoric.
— Michael Nadeau
Market cycles and long-term holder behavior
The current wealth destruction phase in crypto is likely to last about a year.
— Michael Nadeau
Wealth destruction phases can be volatile and may not follow a consistent downward trend.
— Michael Nadeau
The market value to realized value ratio is currently at 1.4, indicating it has room to move before reaching a buy signal.
— Michael Nadeau
Long-term holders are starting to re-enter the market, which could signal a shift towards a new bull cycle.
— Michael Nadeau
The supply held by long-term holders typically decreases during wealth distribution and increases as new buyers enter the market.
— Michael Nadeau
Bitcoin’s relationship with traditional markets
The market may take about a year to align with historical cycles and metrics.
— Michael Nadeau
The fair value of Bitcoin is roughly around $65,000, based on key metrics.
— Michael Nadeau
The market is unlikely to see significant changes in the near future, with low chances of interest rate cuts from the Fed.
— Michael Nadeau
Bitcoin has historically acted as a liquidity index, often following the movements of the Nasdaq.
— Michael Nadeau
Gold and silver are likely to continue to rise relative to crypto assets due to the current economic conditions.
— Michael Nadeau
Investment strategies during market downturns
The ratio of Bitcoin to the Nasdaq composite index reflects the cyclical nature of Bitcoin’s price movements compared to traditional stocks.
— Michael Nadeau
If Bitcoin continues to decline, it is likely that the Nasdaq will also experience a sell-off.
— Michael Nadeau
Bitcoin is likely to bottom around the same time as the Nasdaq, potentially leading to a sell-off.
— Michael Nadeau
The historical performance of Bitcoin relative to Nasdaq and gold suggests that current market behavior is consistent with previous cycles.
— Michael Nadeau
The crypto market experiences bear phases that are exacerbated by the mimetic nature of assets, where belief and confidence can quickly shift.
— Michael Nadeau
Opportunities in periods of disillusionment
We are entering a period of disillusionment in the crypto market, which presents investment opportunities.
— Michael Nadeau
Investors in crypto need to be anchored to data while also understanding the unique intangibles of the asset class.
— Michael Nadeau
Bitcoin serves as a foundational asset that influences the rest of the altcoin market.
— Michael Nadeau
We allocate investment based on a structured approach with different sleeves for varying risk levels.
— Michael Nadeau
Michael Nadeau believes that certain assets can outperform Bitcoin.
— Michael Nadeau
Strategic investment approaches
Nadeau suggests a gradual investment strategy by scaling into positions.
— Michael Nadeau
Ether’s price target has been set based on its recent performance.
— Michael Nadeau
There are expected opportunities in the crypto market in 2026.
— Michael Nadeau
Bear markets provide better opportunities for analysis and understanding of the market.
— Michael Nadeau
It’s challenging to outperform Bitcoin through a market cycle.
— Michael Nadeau
Bitcoin’s potential and the future of finance
Bitcoin needs to demonstrate a significant change in behavior for the market to signal a bottom.
— Michael Nadeau
A typical market bottom is characterized by capitulation followed by a period of quiet and apathy.
— Michael Nadeau
A retracement rally in Bitcoin’s price is likely due to current oversold conditions.
— Michael Nadeau
The market structure is lopsided due to weak hands, which prevents Bitcoin from reaching previous highs.
— Michael Nadeau
Bitcoin could exceed $1,000,000 in the long term.
— Michael Nadeau
Integration of blockchain into finance
The transition of the entire financial system to crypto rails is inevitable.
— Michael Nadeau
Periods of market disillusionment present buying opportunities for long-term investors.
— Michael Nadeau
Bear markets present unique opportunities for investment in the right assets.
— Michael Nadeau
The deployment of blockchain technology into finance is progressing despite current market challenges.
— Michael Nadeau
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