Metaplanet, a relatively unknown Japanese stock, is currently making waves in the crypto market — but not for the right reasons.
According to a new report from 10x Research, the company is trading at levels that imply Bitcoin is worth an astounding $596,154, which is over five times higher than the current spot price of approximately $109,000. This 447% premium has sparked warnings of a major NAV (Net Asset Value) distortion and potential downside risk.
The Disconnect: Bitcoin vs. Proxy Valuation
10x Research, known for accurate macro and crypto market calls, highlights this valuation mismatch as not just unusual but potentially dangerous. Metaplanet’s stock, often used by Japanese investors as a proxy for Bitcoin exposure, has surged 3886% since early 2024 — far outpacing both MicroStrategy (+191%) and Bitcoin itself (+72%).
This parabolic rise has resulted in what analysts are calling a “NAV distortion,” where the value investors are paying far exceeds the underlying asset’s actual price. While MicroStrategy also trades at a premium to its Bitcoin holdings, the difference is far more moderate and historically justifiable given its strategy and exposure.
Japan’s Crypto Frenzy: A Broader Signal?
10x Research’s report points to broader market anomalies forming during Asian trading hours — particularly in Japan’s bond market, currency flows, and crypto-linked stocks. Retail inflows are spiking, and institutional behavior suggests a significant shift beneath the surface.
Analysts compare this moment to past inflection points, where volatility dropped and investor sentiment diverged sharply from fundamentals. If history is any guide, such dislocations often precede sharp corrections.
Lessons from Past Accuracy
This warning comes from a firm with a strong track record. In December 2022, 10x Research flagged Grayscale’s GBTC at a 47% discount to NAV when Bitcoin was trading at just $18,000. They also called MicroStrategy a breakout candidate when it was at $177 — it’s now trading around $380.
What This Really Means
Retail investors looking for crypto exposure through equities may now be significantly overpaying. Metaplanet’s valuation could serve as a canary in the coal mine — a signal that euphoric sentiment has untethered prices from fundamentals. As 10x Research cautions, “In some cases, investors unknowingly pay a 447% premium,” which could spell trouble if sentiment turns.
For savvy investors, this might be the moment to reassess, realign with NAV, and potentially even consider a short — before gravity takes hold.
Kosta Gushterov
Reporter at Coindoo
Kosta has been a part of the team since 2021 and has solidified his position with a thirst for knowledge, incredible dedication to his work and a “detective-like” mindset. He not only covers a wide range of trending topics, he also creates reviews, PR articles and educational content. His work has also been referenced by other news outlets.
Source: https://coindoo.com/metaplanet-bitcoin-premium-hits-447-time-to-short/