Citigroup analysts believe Bitcoin’s future depends less on traditional models and more on one major factor: ETF inflows.
In a recent forecast, the firm laid out three possible outcomes for BTC’s 2025 performance, all tied to how much institutional capital continues to enter spot Bitcoin ETFs.
In its base case, Citigroup sees Bitcoin reaching $135,000 by year-end, assuming moderate inflows of around $15 billion. If institutional buying gains further momentum, the bank’s bullish scenario places Bitcoin just under $200,000, driven by accelerated ETF demand. On the flip side, a slowdown in capital flows could spark a downturn, though Citi didn’t specify how deep that could go.
What’s clear is that ETF-related activity now dominates Bitcoin’s price action. The bank noted that over 40% of BTC’s price movement this year has been tied to these financial products—outpacing older models like stock-to-flow or network usage.
With funds like BlackRock’s IBIT rapidly approaching $100 billion in assets, and Bitcoin’s exposure increasingly baked into mainstream portfolios, Citi suggests that price volatility will largely reflect ETF buying and selling pressure.
In short, Bitcoin’s next big move may not be about mining difficulty or wallet addresses—it’s about whether Wall Street keeps buying.
Alexander Stefanov
Reporter at Coindoo
Alex is an experienced financial journalist and cryptocurrency enthusiast. With over 8 years of experience covering the crypto, blockchain, and fintech industries, he is well-versed in the complex and ever-evolving world of digital assets. His insightful and thought-provoking articles provide readers with a clear picture of the latest developments and trends in the market. His approach allows him to break down complex ideas into accessible and in-depth content. Follow his publications to stay up to date with the most important trends and topics.
Source: https://coindoo.com/mega-bullish-bitcoin-price-prediction-from-top-global-bank/