Mapping Bitcoin’s path to $139k: Past election cycles suggest…

• Bitcoin could surge towards $139,000 if it repeats its past performance during U.S. election cycles. 
• The MVRV ratio also hinted at further upside, as it shows that Bitcoin is not yet overvalued.

Bitcoin [BTC] is repeating historical price patterns with its impressive performance since the U.S. Presidential election on the 5th of November. Historically, U.S. elections have delivered significant gains for BTC, and a repeat of this trend could see it extend its rally to $139,000. 

This is according to analyst TechDev on X (formerly Twitter). He noted that on election day, BTC traded at $69,400. Going by the gains posted during the 2012, 2016, and 2020 elections, the price could post a 4.51x gain to $139,180 by 2025. 

Bitcoin, at press time, was trading at $98,800, having gained by 42% since election day. Its market capitalization is also inching closer to $2 trillion. As bullish sentiment grows, will Bitcoin follow past cycles, or will it derail? 

Is Bitcoin repeating past cycles? 

An analysis of Bitcoin’s weekly chart suggests that the rally, which started during the election week, might continue. After the 2020 November elections, BTC started an uptrend that saw it surge from around $13,700 to the 2021 ATH of $64,800 in less than six months. 

Source: TradingView

A similar rally, that started during the 2024 election week is currently underway, and if the bullish momentum continues, the price could surge past $120,000 by April 2025. 

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) supports this outlook. This indicator had a value of 77 at press time, suggesting that BTC is not yet overbought. Therefore, Bitcoin is yet to find its top despite the recent surge, paving room for more growth. 

MVRV indicator shows THIS 

Bitcoin’s Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio also hints at further gains. This metric had a value of 2.7 at press time, suggesting that BTC is not yet overvalued. 

An MVRV ratio of 2.7 also shows that Bitcoin is still in the early stages of a bull run and despite the successive ATH records, it has yet to find a local top. 

Source: CryptoQuant

Traders should watch out for an MVRV climb past 3.7, as it will indicate that the coin has become overvalued. The last time that the MVRV ratio showed that Bitcoin was overvalued was in early 2021, a few months after the 2020 elections. 

Read Bitcoin’s [BTC] Price Prediction 2024-25

Google Trends suggests retail FOMO 

As Bitcoin draws close to another ATH above $100,000, Google Trends shows that the fear of missing out (FOMO) among retail traders is significantly high. Search activity for the term “Bitcoin” is at its highest level in more than one year.

Source: Google Trends

A score of 100 on Google Trends shows interest in Bitcoin is at its peak. It might also indicate that the retail market is in euphoria.

However, with Bitcoin’s rally showing signs of an early bull market, this score could point toward rising adoption.