Long-term Bitcoin holder AltcoinFox argues that XRP spot ETFs could begin to exhaust the available supply within months, creating conditions for an aggressive price breakout.
He claimed there were “18 outstanding ETFs.” Even if each attracted $50 million in inflows daily, he suggested the group could still attract around $900 million per day. This would mean hundreds of millions of XRP leaving the current market supply every 24 hours.
Based on this, he predicts that XRP could “become scarce within six to nine months,” potentially causing prices to rise.
However, only four XRP spot ETFs are currently pending: those from Grayscale, CoinShares, 21Shares, and WisdomTree. Other issuers like Bitwise and Canary Capital are also already operating and have attracted over $400 million in inflows.
Why Didn’t the XRP Price React?
AltcoinFox’s view echoes previous work by analyst Chad Steingraber, whose model, published on November 20, estimates that 12 ETFs could accumulate approximately 40 billion XRP in a year, equivalent to more than two-thirds of the circulating supply.
In another scenario, if total daily ETF inflows reach $1 billion, the entire supply in the market could be depleted within 12 months unless there is a sudden increase in prices, he suggested.
Analysts note that ETF accumulation largely occurs in over-the-counter markets, with demand hidden from public orders. A price impact would only emerge once ETF-driven supply absorption becomes more significant.
*This is not investment advice.