JPMorgan Now Expects No Fed Rate Cuts in 2026, Bitcoin Falters

Bitcoin plunges as financial giant JPMorgan Chase no longer anticipates any Fed rate cuts in 2026. Following the latest US jobs data, banks such as Barclays, Goldman Sachs, and Morgan Stanley have also postponed their Fed rate cut calls.

JPMorgan No Longer Expects Fed Rate Cuts in 2026

JPMorgan Chase has flipped hawkish on U.S. monetary policy and predicts a rate hike by the U.S. Federal Reserve in 2027. This indicates the Fed will pause rates entirely in 2026, causing renewed pressure on Bitcoin.

Earlier, JPMorgan expected only one Fed rate cut in 2026, with a 25 bps reduction in January. The bank expected the United States economy to stay in resilient in 2026 at 80%, including a 20% chance of exceeding expectations and leading to a reacceleration of inflation.

This shift comes as US jobs data, including JOLTS, Nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate, slowed more than expected. Notably, JPMorgan anticipated that the labor market would improve and capital expenditure would expand in tandem with easing financial conditions.

“If the labor market weakens again in the coming months, or if inflation falls materially, the Fed could still ease later this year,” JPMorgan said.

Following recent jobs data, JP Morgan has revised its outlook and no longer anticipates any US Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026, compared with its earlier prediction of a 25 basis point reduction in January.

— First Squawk (@FirstSquawk) January 12, 2026

Other Banks Delay Fed Rate Cuts Outlook

While JPMorgan withdrew its outlook for a January Fed rate cut, other banks have delayed their rate cut calls to mid-2026. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, traders now see a 95% odds for the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged at its January meeting.

Goldman now sees two 25bps cuts in June and September, scrapping earlier expectations of cuts in March and June. It expects the Fed funds rate to end 2026 at 3–3.25% and cut recession odds to 20% from 30%.

Moreover, Barclays joined Morgan Stanley in postponing rate cut calls to mid-2026 as the latest decline in unemployment rate and wage growth highlighted that the US labor market was not rapidly deteriorating.

All eyes are now on Tuesday’s CPI inflation data and bank earnings. A hotter-than-expected CPI could push Bitcoin towards the CME gap near $88K. Tighter liquidity and continued redemptions from spot Bitcoin ETFs are also raising crypto market crash jitters.

BTC price pared earlier gains over the past 24 hours and currently trades at $90,435. The 24-hour low and high are $90,212 and $92,395, respectively. Trading volume has increased massively by 150% over the last 24 hours.