New data out of the United States shows that the wave of layoffs feared heading into the holidays has not materialized.
Key Takeaways
- U.S. jobless claims fell to 191,000, well below expectations, signaling fewer layoffs and a steadier labor market.
- The data may slow the timeline for Federal Reserve rate cuts, though it doesn’t rule out mid-2026 easing.
- Markets were largely flat, while Bitcoin traded near $92,800 with a stable outlook and low volatility.
Jobless claims fell to 191,000, far below economists’ expectations of 220,000, signaling that employers are still reluctant to cut staff even as growth cools. The decline marks one of the stronger weekly readings of the past several months and reinforces the view that the labor market remains surprisingly steady.
Although companies have slowed hiring across several sectors, the drop in claims suggests workers are not being pushed out at the pace analysts expected. This aligns with other data pointing to a job market that is softening gently rather than cracking under economic pressure.
Continuing unemployment claims came in at 1.939 million for the week of November 22, slightly under the projected 1.963 million. The number indicates that displaced workers are still finding new employment relatively quickly, supporting the idea that economic activity remains healthy despite tighter financial conditions.
What This Means for a Potential Fed Rate Cut
Next week’s Fed meeting is widely expected to deliver a rate cut, a move many investors see as the official start of the central bank’s easing cycle. However, today’s stronger labor data complicates the outlook for what comes after. While a December cut remains almost guaranteed, the path beyond that is far less certain. Policymakers may need more evidence of cooling in the job market before committing to a faster pace of reductions, making the post-cut trajectory a major unknown heading into early 2026.
Even with easing price pressures this year, inflation remains above the Fed’s 2% target, adding another layer of uncertainty to the policy path. The central bank is unlikely to accelerate rate cuts while core inflation stays sticky, especially with the labor market showing more resilience than expected.
Market Reaction: Stocks Flat, Crypto Steady
Equities showed little enthusiasm following the release. With no major surprise pointing toward imminent monetary easing, the stock market remained essentially flat through the early session. Traders largely treated the report as confirmation that the economy remains stable, but not enough to shift risk appetite in a meaningful way.
Crypto markets were similarly muted. Bitcoin continues to trade with low volatility, reflecting the broader pause in macro-driven momentum.
Bitcoin Price Update and Outlook
Bitcoin currently sits around $92,834 based on the latest data, hovering near the top of its recent range. The lack of movement in stocks and the mild labor report kept traders from making aggressive bets in either direction. Market analysts still point to institutional inflows, easing financial conditions, and the ongoing expectation of 2026 rate cuts as longer-term supports for Bitcoin’s trajectory.
For now, Bitcoin’s outlook remains cautiously optimistic. As long as macro data avoids major negative surprises and liquidity continues improving, analysts expect the asset to maintain its broader upward trend.
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