ISM PMI 52.6: A Turning Point for Bitcoin?

ISM Manufacturing PMI Rose to 52.6 in January

The ISM Manufacturing PMI, a health indicator of the US economy, reached 52.6 points in January, marking its highest monthly level since August 2022. The data, exceeding the market expectation of 48.5 points, signals the end of 26 months of contraction and expansion in the manufacturing sector. The economy is considered to be expanding when the index is above 50 points. Bitcoin (BTC) is currently trading at 78,849 dollars, and analysts state that this strong ISM data could be a potential turning point for BTC. Click here for detailed BTC analysis.

ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index since Jan. 2016. Source: Trading Economics

BTC Technical Analysis: RSI at 29.71 in Oversold Territory

BTC price at 78,849 dollars, up 1.69% in the last 24 hours but overall trend is downward. RSI at 29.71 gives an oversold signal, Supertrend bearish. Resistance above EMA 20 (85,686 dollars). Strong supports: S1 74,604 dollars (⭐ STRONG, 73% score), S2 78,691 dollars (near, -0.24%). Resistances: R1 79,269 dollars (+0.49%, ⭐ STRONG), R2 83,548 dollars. Details on BTC futures here.

Historical PMI-BTC Correlation and Analyst Comments

According to historical data, between 2020-2023, PMI rises and falls largely aligned with BTC price movements. Strive Bitcoin strategist Joe Burnett stated that PMI reversals signal risk-on conditions and have triggered BTC rallies in the past (2013, 2016, 2020). Analyst Plan C emphasized focusing on the macroeconomic cycle. Benjamin Cowen noted that BTC doesn’t always move with the economy, reaching a peak of 126,080 dollars last year despite falling PMI. BTC is down about 38% from its October peak.

Latest News: BTC Fell Below MicroStrategy’s Cost Basis

In fragile market conditions, BTC fell below MicroStrategy’s 76,037 dollar cost basis for the first time since October 2023. It also dropped below 80,000 dollars for the first time since April 2025. Can these drops reverse with positive data like ISM PMI? Analysts are watching closely. Stay tuned for BTC spot market updates.