Key highlights:
- US could control 40% of all Bitcoin by 2025, says investor Fred Krueger.
- Current US holdings only add up to around 12.4% of total Bitcoin supply.
- Experts call the forecast unrealistic due to Bitcoin’s global distribution.
- India’s 1 million BTC prediction also doubted amid regulatory hurdles.
Investor Fred Krueger published a forecast on the social network X that by the end of 2025, the US could own 7.8 million Bitcoins — almost 40% of the total supply of the digital currency. India, in his opinion, will acquire 1 million Bitcoins, which would amount to 5.1% of the world’s supply. But how realistic are these figures?
Global Bitcoin Distribution (2025 Forecast) Source: Fred Krueger
US Bitcoin assets: state and private holdings
Breaking down American Bitcoin assets, the US government currently controls about 198,022 Bitcoins—less than 1% of the total supply—mostly from major seizures like the Silk Road case and Bitfinex exchange.
The Trump administration previously announced plans to place confiscated Bitcoins into a strategic Bitcoin reserve.
Forty-six large public companies with significant Bitcoin holdings are based in the US. Strategy and MARA Holdings lead the list. US public companies hold roughly 876,517 Bitcoins, with private companies holding another 188,105 Bitcoins.
Top 10 Corporate Bitcoin Holders. Source: Bitcoin Treasuries
Combining government, public, and private companies, plus ETFs, totals about 2,605,359 Bitcoins—around 12.4% of the supply.
Retail investors contribute significantly as well. In 2023, about 13% of the US population owned cryptocurrency—approximately 46 million people—with 73% holding Bitcoin. Assuming an average of one Bitcoin each, this adds about 2.2% to US ownership.
Evaluating the forecast: Reality vs. Predictions
Blockstream CEO Adam Back criticized Krueger’s data source as “unrealistic,” expressing doubt about the methodology. Even under aggressive growth scenarios, it is rare for one country to control nearly half the Bitcoin supply due to its global distribution.
Regarding India’s forecasted 1 million Bitcoins by 2025, skepticism remains. Gold remains a traditional store of wealth in India, and despite a slow shift toward Bitcoin, regulatory challenges persist. Owning 5% of the global Bitcoin supply seems unlikely for India currently.
Overall, the prediction that the US will own 40% of all Bitcoins appears overly optimistic. Current data show much more modest holdings, and a dramatic change within a year is improbable despite institutional growth.
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Source: https://coincodex.com/article/71177/is-the-us-set-to-control-40-of-bitcoin-a-look-at-the-controversial-claim/