Key Insights:
- Bitcoin price dipped under about $113K, down roughly 2.5% day over day.
- Profit-taking signals and a softer Sharpe reduced institutional appeal, according to research.
- Futures volume neared ~$73B as BTC volatility rose; ETH, XRP, SOL, DOGE, ADA fell 5–11%.
Bitcoin fell back below around $113,000 as the new week saw momentum weakened across the crypto market. The retreat followed a failed attempt near $118,000 last week and reopened questions about risk appetite and trend strength.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin price was near $113,000, the RSI was around 46, the MACD had crossed lower, and futures volume was near $73 Billion.
Bitcoin Price Slipped as Momentum Weakened
The latest decline aligned with persistent resistance and fading buy-side interest. Traders said overhead supply limited follow-through after last week’s bounce. The loss from the recent swing high signaled a shift toward defense rather than accumulation.
Momentum indicators reflected that shift. RSI, which measured the speed of recent moves, hovered below the midpoint. MACD, a signal derived from moving averages, flipped lower and pointed to reduced upward pressure. Those signals often suggested consolidation or corrective action after an extended run.
Derivatives activity expanded. Reported futures turnover surged compared with the prior session. Elevated volume tended to mark repositioning as traders adjusted to wider ranges. Analysts said the mix favored short-term speculation over longer-term spot demand.
Breadth weakened beyond BTC. Major tokens, including ETH, XRP, SOL, DOGE, and ADA, posted single-day declines that ranged from mid-single digits to low double digits. The pullback undercut the notion of a clean rotation into altcoins and indicated broader risk fatigue.
Sentiment cooled. A widely followed fear-and-greed gauge sat in the mid-40s, a level that aligned with neutral risk posture. That reading fit the technical backdrop and the softer tone in spot flows.
On-chain and Derivatives Signaled Cycle Fatigue
On-chain metrics offered a similar message. According to CryptoQuant researcher Joao Wedson, a profit-ratio trend suggested that realized gains had thinned. SOPR, a commonly used measure of whether coins moved at a profit or loss, indicated that profitability momentum eased as Bitcoin price churned near recent highs. Analysts said that backdrop often aligned with slower inflows.
Wedson also pointed to the Short-Term Holder Realized Price near $111,400. He said that level functioned as a reference for institutions that missed earlier accumulation. When spot traded near that mark, short-term holders sat closer to breakeven, which tended to influence supply behavior on small swings.
Risk-adjusted returns softened. Wedson said the Sharpe Ratio trailed its 2024 profile, which made BTC less compelling versus alternatives on a volatility-normalized basis. Institutions that evaluated exposures through that lens tended to prefer steadier payoff profiles when Sharpe deteriorated.
Social engagement around BTC faded from recent peaks. Market observers said attention often migrated to smaller tokens during such periods. However, rotation evidence appeared mixed. The Altcoin Season Index, which tracked relative outperformance, declined from last week’s high toward the mid-60s. That pullback underscored how quickly the earlier rotation narrative cooled.
Derivatives positioning reinforced caution. Rising volume into a down-day suggested heavier use of short-term hedges and tactical trades. Analysts said that pattern did not rule out quick reversals. It did, however, highlight a market that relied on leverage and timing rather than patient spot demand.
Liquidity conditions mattered. When books thinned near key levels, small order imbalances produced larger price swings. That dynamic helped explain intraday volatility around well-watched thresholds and added noise to otherwise orderly consolidations.
Bitcoin Price: What Could Change Trend Next
Near-term levels remained straightforward. The $118,000 region capped the prior push and marked initial resistance. The short-term holder reference near $111,000 aligned with a tactical support zone. A sustained break below that area would have increased pressure on holders with tight risk bands. A sustained reclaim above the recent swing high would have improved trend quality and forced shorts to re-evaluate.
Momentum needed confirmation. RSI pushing back above the midpoint, alongside a bullish MACD cross, would have strengthened the case for renewed upside. Without that, rallies likely faced supply near recent congestion. Traders said clean signals mattered more than raw price alone in a choppy regime.
On-chain trends deserved monitoring. An upturn in SOPR and a firming Sharpe would have signaled healthier profit capture and better risk-adjusted characteristics. Those shifts historically preceded improvements in spot demand as larger allocators reassessed entries.
Breadth would have acted as a tell. If ETH, XRP, SOL, DOGE, and ADA stabilized while BTC reclaimed recent resistance, rotation risk would have eased. If altcoins stayed soft while BTC chopped, risk preference likely remained muted across tokens.
Flows stayed important. A pivot from derivatives-led volume toward spot accumulation would have suggested stronger conviction. Evidence of steady bid depth at prior support tended to reduce downside follow-through and compress realized volatility.
For now, the setup favored patience over aggressive bets. The market’s message remained consistent: resistance near recent highs, mixed rotation signals, and on-chain metrics that reflected cycle fatigue. A decisive shift in momentum indicators, coupled with improving on-chain profitability and steadier breadth, would have been the clearest sign that the trend changed course.