Bitcoin’s latest market behavior signals a shift that doesn’t fit neatly into its past playbook, according to Jurrien Timmer, Global Macro Director at Fidelity.
Rather than focusing on short-term volatility, Timmer examined the deeper structural forces shaping the asset — and his conclusion is that Bitcoin may be evolving into a steadier, slower-moving system than the one early adopters remember.
Key Takeaways
- Fidelity’s Timmer sees Bitcoin operating in a steadier macro environment as speculation cools.
- Corporate equity-funded BTC accumulation may slow the pace of future rallies.
- Bitcoin’s historical growth appears to follow five long-duration network waves, each less explosive than the last.
Timmer noted that the climate surrounding digital assets has quietly improved. Speculative excesses have washed out, and the Federal Reserve’s softer outlook has calmed both bond and currency markets. This combination, he said, has given Bitcoin a cleaner runway than it had for most of the past year.
Because of this new environment, he sees growing odds that Bitcoin could finish 2025 with a respectable performance — not necessarily spectacular, but far better than many expected during the mid-year turmoil.
A New Growth Constraint Emerging
But Timmer also pointed out a development that didn’t exist in earlier cycles: corporations raising capital through equity issuance and using those funds to accumulate Bitcoin. This “yield-style treasury model,” he suggested, could eventually act as a brake on future rallies if the market becomes too dependent on stock-funded buying rather than organic demand.
As that trend takes shape, long-time debates have resurfaced about whether Bitcoin still follows a strict four-year cycle — or whether that framework is losing relevance altogether.
The Five-Wave Pattern Behind Bitcoin’s Expansion
Looking back to 2010, Timmer mapped Bitcoin’s evolution through what he calls its network-growth waves. In his view, Bitcoin has already completed four major adoption surges and is now working through a fifth.
What stands out is the pattern: each wave has taken longer to develop, and each one delivered a smaller exponential jump than the previous. To Timmer, that isn’t a sign of weakness — it’s evidence that Bitcoin is becoming a more stable, maturing asset class.
Where the Current Wave Might Peak
Using his long-term models, Timmer estimates that the upper boundary of the current wave sits near $151,360. He cautioned, however, that the exact year-end result for 2025 remains unpredictable. The important takeaway, he said, is that Bitcoin’s broader trajectory continues to strengthen even if its short-term path is harder to pin down.
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