Is Bitcoin Headed for a Major Drop? September Slump vs. October Rally Analysis

Bitcoin recently broke down from its market structure, raising concerns about how low it might drop in the coming months. September, a historically bearish month, has many wondering if a significant decline is on the horizon. Rekt Capital, a well-known crypto analyst, analyzed past trends, current market conditions, and the upcoming October, a typically bullish month.

September’s Historical Downside

According to Rekt Capital’s analysis, Bitcoin’s 7% drop in September aligns with previous years when the market experienced consistent declines. In 2022, Bitcoin dropped by 7% in September, and similar single-digit losses were seen in 2021, 2020, and 2018. 

This shows that September often leads to bearish momentum, with the current decline being no exception. However, in extreme cases like 2014, Bitcoin has faced sharper drops, such as the 19% dip during the bear market.

Despite the current decline, 2024 being a halving year suggests that this downward pressure might not be as severe as in non-halving years.

Halving Year Impact

Furthermore Rekt Capital notes that sharp declines are less likely during halving years like 2016 and 2020. Bitcoin has typically shown smaller moves, both up and down, in these years. A 7% drop seems more likely, which could bring Bitcoin to around $55,000. 

Even in more extreme scenarios, such as a 13% or 19% drop, Bitcoin could fall to $48,000 or lower. However, such sharp declines are rare in halving years unless unexpected economic events trigger a selloff.

October’s Bullish Outlook

Despite September’s bearish history, October is usually one of Bitcoin’s best months. Historically, Bitcoin has seen significant gains in October, with an average return of over 20%. In 2020, a halving year like 2024, Bitcoin surged 27% in October, offering hope that the current downtrend may soon end. 

Based on historical patterns, October could bring a rally ranging from 10% to 30%, which would align with previous halving years when Bitcoin began a new bullish phase. This suggests that while September may bring consolidation, October holds the potential for a strong recovery.

What To Expect Bullish & Bearish Outlook

Rekt Capital’s analysis shows that Bitcoin has been consolidating around the $55,000 range, with the next key level to watch at $57,000. If Bitcoin breaks this resistance, it could lead to a stronger upward move. 

However, caution is advised as the market remains uncertain. If Bitcoin retests the three-year resistance level near $46,000, a 19% pullback could push the market closer to this support level. While this scenario is unlikely, it could set the stage for a significant rally in the future.