Inside Bitcoin’s 4.64% upside – Is this rally built to last?

The market is debating positioning as macro FUD grows.

Some are calling Bitcoin’s [BTC] latest bullish sprint over $70k, with a 4.64% move on the 2nd of March, a fake pump driven by deleveraging among short holders, with the next resistance level set around $78k.

From a technical view, the thesis is not entirely far-fetched. Indeed, BTC’s rally coincided with a squeeze totaling $229 million in short liquidations, which accounted for 65% of the total $360 million flushed that day.

Source: TradingView (BTC/USDT)

Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s Funding Rates remained deeply in the red, further reinforcing this setup as a short-driven move. As a result, the 12H heatmap showed massive short liquidity clusters stacking above BTC’s spot value.

When combined with the macro setup, the odds that BTC’s move is a fake pump begin to carry further weight. With volatility this high, any upward move would catch bears off guard, amplifying short-term price swings.

However, the debate doesn’t end there. The bullish camp argues that Bitcoin’s divergence from the macro FUD isn’t merely a bear trap but the start of the next leg higher, turning the volatility into an opportunity.

Naturally, the question is, which side best defines Bitcoin’s positioning?

What investor psychology reveals

What cuts through the noise is how investors are actually positioning.

From a technical perspective, Bitcoin’s 0.9% intraday dip, a notable pullback from the $70,111 level it reclaimed, signals potential resistance overhead, explaining why the 4.64% move could be just a bear trap.

However, to assess whether the momentum can continue, analyzing investor psychology is key. Notably, with a 5% move, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index is now just one point shy of moving out of extreme fear.

Source: X

Interestingly, this is just one of many divergences playing out.

As one analyst noted, low leverage, as indicated by Bitcoin’s Open Interest, marks a divergence from last year’s geopolitical tensions, illustrating how market mechanics prevented the FUD from spilling into BTC’s technicals.

Taken together, bullish sentiment and low speculation indicate stronger investor psychology, suggesting that Bitcoin’s vertical move may be more than a simple bear trap.

If this trend continues, it could instead mark the start of a conviction-backed breakout.

Final Summary

• Bitcoin’s 4.64% rise was driven by $229 million in liquidations, showing short-term positioning and a possible bear trap.
• Strong sentiment, low leverage, and low speculation suggest the move could signal the start of a confidence-backed rally.