How will upcoming halving affect BTC performance?

Experts in the cryptocurrency market are attempting to predict where Bitcoin (BTC) will go in the next months and years, especially as the leading digital asset has climbed back above the the $20,000 psychological threshold since the beginning of 2023.

The next halving event for the flagship digital currency is scheduled for 2024 and is one of the events that might dramatically ‘push’ the price of Bitcoin, according to many experts and proponents, which could have a considerable impact.

Bitcoin’s fourth halving event, or the fourth protocol-designed 50% reduction in block rewards happens every 210,000 blocks or around every four years. By estimation, the next halving event will occur around May 4, 2024, when Bitcoin reaches 840,000 blocks.

Why investors are bullish for the next Bitcoin halving

Following the third halving event on May 11, 2020, miners have been paid 6.25 Bitcoins for each Bitcoin block mined. With an average of 144 blocks generated every 24 hours, this equates to roughly 900 Bitcoin being issued and rewarded every day. 

By design of the Bitcoin blockchain, this reward will be “halved” and reduced to 3.125 BTC per block at the fourth halving event. If the average number of blocks mined each day stays around the same, then about 450 BTC will be created each day.

When attempting to forecast how Bitcoin’s price will move in the future, history may be a valuable tool for determining the future direction of prices, which is particularly true when taking into account the fact that Bitcoin’s value has increased by almost 1,000 times since the initial halving.

In this line, Finbold analyzed industry experts on their Bitcoin outlook and fundamentals likely to define the asset’s performance looking to 2025 and beyond.

21 million BTC

With the mining of block ‘730002’ by SBI Crypto on April 1, 2022, it became evident that just 2 million BTC (out of a total of 21 million) remained to be issued. In turn, price increases may occur as a natural outcome of decreased supply and increased demand. 

At the same time, positive developments, such as payment giant VISA (NYSE: V) partnering with leading crypto payments platform Wirex to launch crypto-enabled debit and prepaid cards for Bitcoin and other cryptos in more than 40 countries, are expected to have a positive impact on digital asset prices in the future.

Bitcoin halving to pump BTC price

Renowned pseudonymous crypto trading expert PlanB announced back in October that “the next Bitcoin halving is coming, and IMO it will (again) pump BTC,” while posting the chart analysis of the decentralized finance (DeFi) asset’s previous price movements and future predictions.

The chart adheres to a stock-to-flow (S2F) live model, which employs the concept of scarcity in order to measure Bitcoin’s worth and speculate on its potential future price. After Bitcoin’s third halving event in May 2020, the chart model advocated by PlanB has received a significant amount of attention from many sources.

PlanB’s forecast is consistent with that of cryptocurrency trader and analyst Josh Rager, who has predicted a massive Bitcoin surge after the halving in 2024. Rager has said that “the real party won’t start until 2024.”

The analyst was referring to his tweet on August 25 in which he predicted Bitcoin’s growth trajectory after the halving events will be replicated in the 2024 surge.

Why do these predictions matter?

After a halving occurrence, prices tend to rise steadily and significantly over the following years, reaching a high about a year and a half later. In the event that the same thing takes place with the subsequent one, this would be good news for Bitcoin investors.

Interestingly, the above analysis goes in hand with the predictions of Bloomberg’s senior commodity expert Mike McGlone, who earlier said at the end of January that Bitcoin could hit $100,000 sometime around the next halving or by 2025.

McGlone keeps his well-known optimistic attitude for the long term, previously stating that Bitcoin could outperform gold as its top competitor in the future. According to him:

“I fully expect Bitcoin in the next couple of years, by probably around the halving, maybe 2025, to get to $100,000.”

BTC price analysis

At the time of publication, Bitcoin was trading at $22,117, as it looks to hold support above the $22,000 price level on February 15. The total market capitalization is $420.8 billion, with a $20.7 billion trading volume in the last 24 hours.

Bitcoin’s technical analysis on TradingView is primarily bearish, with the summary aligning with the ‘sell’ sentiment at nine while moving averages are for the ‘strong sell’ at 8. Oscillators are pointing at ‘neutral’ with 8. 

Despite the dip in price in February, it is worth noting that one of Bitcoin’s key technical indicators, the Rainbow relative strength index (RSI), had turned green for the first time on February 12 after an extended correction, suggesting long-term bullish momentum. 

Price prediction 2025

Notably, Robert Kiyosaki, author of the best-selling personal finance book ‘Rich Dad Poor Dad,’ Kiyosaki labeled Bitcoin one of the three “hottest subjects on earth” alongside silver and gold, predicting BTC to reach $500,000 by 2025.

Meanwhile, in an exclusive industry report by Finbold where experts weighed in on what to expect for Bitcoin in 2023, Stefan Ristic, a crypto miner running BitcoinMiningSoftware.com, expects Bitcoin halving in 2024 to act as a major catalyst for a possible bull run in late 2024 to 2025.

Price prediction 2030

As per the average prediction provided by Finder’s panel of fintech specialists in their January 2023 report, they predict BTC will hit $77,492 by 2025 and $188,451 by 2030.

There are those in the cryptocurrency industry that are optimistic about Bitcoin’s valuation in 2030. The Winklevoss twins, who founded the Gemini cryptocurrency exchange, predict that Bitcoin’s value will reach $500,000 by 2030. According to the brothers, the flagship cryptocurrency will replace gold as the store of value.

According to NDAX CEO Bilal Hammoud, Bitcoin’s price will reach $500,000 by 2030. He thinks that the aim may be set higher, but he forecasts that increasing interest rate rises will affect the trajectory.

Lastly, Finbold asked ChatGPT to share Bitcoin’s possible price by 2030 based on various metrics, such as traditional price movement, and technical analysis, amongst others. 

In light of the considerable market volatility and regulatory uncertainty, the tool concedes that it is difficult to estimate the price of Bitcoin in the long term. The AI-based platform, however, argues that Bitcoin still has the capacity to grow in the years ahead due to developing markets and widespread acceptance of the cryptocurrency.

“As the cryptocurrency market matures and more people become aware of the potential of digital currencies, Bitcoin will likely become more widely accepted, and its value will continue to rise,” said ChatGPT.

Conclusion

The value of Bitcoin is still anticipated to rise, as shown by the price estimates provided by the aforementioned experts and observers, which provides investors with a cause to keep their confidence in the cryptocurrency. 

Bitcoin has remained one of the most popular choices for long-term investments in the cryptocurrency market, even though its price is subject to significant swings due to its high degree of volatility. 

Taking into consideration that no one can predict with absolute certainty where Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies will end up by the end of this year, it is even more difficult to make predictions about the next seven years.

Disclaimer: The content on this site should not be considered investment advice. Investing is speculative. When investing, your capital is at risk.