Trading Economics estimates suggest that this week’s data releases will indicate that inflation is again rising in potential red flag for Bitcoin and crypto.
The crypto market led by Bitcoin has struggled to find its footing in recent weeks and a big factor driving this uncertainty has been an unending barrage of developments from the U.S. pointing towards an anticipated return of inflation and a more hawkish Federal Reserve as a result.
This barrage looks set to continue this week as the market anticipates arguably two of the Fed’s most watched metrics, the Producer Price Index (PPI) and the Consumer Price Index (CPI).
Will crypto asset prices melt under the heat as inflation is seen to be coming in hot again?
Inflation Coming in Hot?
The U.S. PPI and CPI will come in on Tuesday, January 14, and Wednesday, January 15, respectively, with economists anticipating that the data will show inflation is again on the rise.
The PPI measures price changes from the perspective of sellers, while the CPI measures price changes from the perspective of consumers. As such, both metrics are key indicators of inflation.
Trading Economics estimates suggest that this week’s data releases will indicate that inflation is again rising. Specifically, they anticipate a 3.3% year-on-year (YoY) increase in PPI in December 2024, higher than the previous 3%.
The outlook does not improve when economists exclude food as Core YoY PPI is also expected to come in at 3.5% in December 2024 compared to a previous 3.4%.
Unsurprisingly, CPI expectations for December 2024 paint a similar picture. YoY CPI is expected to rise to 2.9% from a previous 2.7%, moving farther from the Fed’s 2% target. Core YoY CPI is, however, could remain stable at 3.3%.
These projections follow last week’s hotter-than-expected job numbers and President-elect Donald Trump’s threats of high tariffs on Chinese goods.
So, how will the crypto market react?
Muted Price Action Likely Ahead
Bitcoin and the broader crypto market have historically not fared well in risk-off environments, and this time will likely be no different.
Speaking with The Crypto Basic, CoinShares Head of Research James Butterfill asserted that this week’s data is likely to put selling pressure on Bitcoin and other crypto asset prices.
“Combined, these factors [referring to the anticipated rise in producer and consumer costs] could lead the market to price in no rate hikes during the first half of the year, potentially weighing on any Bitcoin price gains. As a result, upside drivers are more likely to stem from the approval of some form of Bitcoin-related legislation following the inauguration,” he said.
The inauguration in question is the highly anticipated inauguration of Donald Trump as president on January 20. The president-elect had made several pro-crypto promises on the campaign trail, most notable of them being a promise to establish a Bitcoin strategic reserve.
Amid high inflation expectations, the CME FedWatch tool shows a 97% chance that the Fed will leave interest rates unchanged after the January 29 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting.
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Source: https://thecryptobasic.com/2025/01/13/inflation-likely-coming-in-hot-with-ppi-and-cpi-this-week-how-will-bitcoin-and-crypto-react/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=inflation-likely-coming-in-hot-with-ppi-and-cpi-this-week-how-will-bitcoin-and-crypto-react