- 13 spot Bitcoin ETF proposals have been submitted so far in 2023.
- Beyond ETFs, there is also some excitement around Bitcoin NFTs.
In 2023, Bitcoin saw significant developments that provided a glimpse into what awaits it in 2024. The number of ETF proposals submitted during the year and BTC’s corresponding reactions offered valuable insights.
It showed the potential influence of institutional investment on its price movements. Additionally, the increasing popularity of Ordinals Inscriptions underscored the network’s additional utility and significance.
What a spot Bitcoin ETF is
A spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) is an investment tool that enables regular investors to gain exposure to Bitcoin price movements within their standard brokerage accounts.
Unlike BTC Futures ETFs, a spot BTC ETF directly invests in BTC as the underlying asset rather than using derivative contracts based on their prices. The initial application for a U.S. Bitcoin ETF was submitted in 2013, but gained increased attention in 2023.
However, until now, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is yet to approve any proposal. Despite the SEC’s apparent firm position, there are indications that approvals may be on the horizon.
Some of the notable institutions that have filed so far
Blackrock
On 15th June, BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager, applied for a Bitcoin spot ETF. The filing suggested Coinbase as the crypto-custodian and spot market data provider.
At the same time, BNY Mellon was named as the cash custodian.
In mid-July 2023, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) officially accepted BlackRock’s application for review. This was following its re-submission earlier in the year. BlackRock later made a second amendment to its S-1 registration in November, introducing additional key details.
On 18th December, BlackRock submitted a revised proposal to address concerns from regulators. The updated proposal outlined that BlackRock’s ETF would incorporate cash creation and redemption mechanisms.
The new update aligned with the model favoured by the SEC. On 22nd December, another update was submitted.
VanEck
VanEck, a major institution, was one of the early applicants. Initially, it submitted its first application in 2018 but was subsequently withdrawn in 2019.
Despite facing various rejections, VanEck submitted its latest application on 22nd June 2023. This recent application sought approval to launch the VanEck Bitcoin Trust on the Cboe BZX exchange.
Additionally, on 27th October, it filed an amended application for the product. The amended filing showed a potential shift to use Bitcoin instead of cash for the product launch directly. Additionally, Gemini was named as the custodian for the proposed ETF.
Grayscale
Grayscale, another institutional player, has seen increased optimism regarding ETF approval following a recent legal victory against the SEC.
The August ruling stated that the SEC could not prevent Grayscale from converting its Bitcoin trust (GBTC) into a spot ETF. The explanation behind this decision was that the SEC had already approved Grayscale’s futures funds.
This rendered the argument against spot conversion “arbitrary and capricious.” In the event of an SEC approval, Grayscale intends to transfer GBTC from the OTCQX Market to NYSE Arca. Notably, the SEC did not contest the ruling.
Bitcoin ETF proposal approved… Oh, Wait!
On 16th October, news circulated that BlackRock had received approval for its spot Bitcoin ETF. This was also around the same time that Grayscale celebrated its victory against the SEC.
These developments led to a notable rise in the price of BTC. However, Cointelegraph, the initial source of the news, later came out to state that the news was fake.
An analysis of the BTC chart underlined a price increase of over 5% on that day. Opening at around $27,186, the price climbed to over $30,100 before closing the day at around $28,546.
Source: TradingView
While the fake news significantly impacted price movement, legitimate news of proposal submissions also influenced it. The impact was that the proposal submission news had a gradual effect, unlike the sharp rise caused by the false report.
Taking the example of BlackRock’s submission news on 15th July, the price appreciated by just 1.30%.
On that day, BTC traded at around $25,600. It continued to rise in the following days, climbing to over $30,000 and maintaining that price range until around mid-August before the trend slowed down.
Source:TradingView
How Bitcoin could react to a spot ETF approval
Based on the observed reactions to news events such as proposal submissions and the false ETF approval news, it’s anticipated that Bitcoin will increase in price upon receiving actual approval.
However, this reaction may unfold gradually as traders cautiously verify the license’s authenticity. The initial rise in value is expected to start from existing and new traders rushing to buy in anticipation of a price hike.
Further increases in value are likely to be driven by institutional funds entering the market, contributing to a rise in demand.
Some predictions suggest that 2024 could be the year BTC hits the $100,000 price range. While there is yet to be a clear response from the SEC, approvals might be granted before the end of the first quarter of 2024. Some optimistic predictions even point to approval as early as January.
Despite the spotlight on spot ETF proposals, 2023 also saw a significant impact from Ordinals on BTC. This additional utility has contributed to the broader developments shaping BTC’s journey over the year.
Enter Bitcoin Ordinals Inscriptions
Bitcoin Ordinals serve as the blockchain’s equivalent of non-fungible tokens (NFTs), using satoshis, the smallest denomination on the chain. These Ordinals are created (minted) through a process similar to traditional BTC transactions. They adhere to a specific protocol that distinguishes them as special types of BTC transactions.
The emergence of Bitcoin Ordinals has impacted the Bitcoin network, leading to a rise in usage, transaction fees, and storage space. This trend has expanded the narrative around BTC as a “store of value” and contributed to a broader perspective on its utility.
The popularity of Ordinals Inscriptions is evident in the trend of the total number of inscriptions. It is also evidence of the growing interest and engagement with this new aspect of the network.
How Ordinals Inscriptions have trended
An examination of the Bitcoin Ordinals trend on Dune Analytics revealed a gradual and sustained increase in popularity despite a slow start.
The growth was evident in the significant rise in daily inscriptions. There were periods when it seemed that the Ordinals craze had reduced due to declines in daily numbers. Still, each time it dipped, it bounced back, often setting new daily high records.
For instance, after a fall in daily numbers around July, the trend picked up the following month. After it picked up, it hit a record of over 440,000 daily inscriptions in September.
Following a subsequent decline in September and early October, the numbers rose again to over 505,000 on 12th November. The daily Inscriptions dropped as low as 3,960 in September and October. As of the latest update, the total number of inscriptions was over 51.3 million.
Source: Dune analytics
Furthermore, the growth in daily inscriptions has led to higher transaction fees. Data from Dune Analytics showed that the total Ordinals fees were over $213.6 million, at press time.
Notably, a recent chart analysis highlighted increased daily fees, consistent with high daily fees being maintained.
Source: Dune Analytics
How these developments could impact Bitcoin in 2024
The approval of a Bitcoin ETF will positively impact BTC’s price trend. This is because historical patterns have shown price reactions to previous ETF-related announcements.
The positive sentiment surrounding this anticipation coincides with the expected bear market in 2024.
In addition to ETF developments, the Bitcoin NFT collection called Frogs has entered the top NFT collection rankings on DappRadar in the last 30 days.
Furthermore, the network has been featured among the top 5 chains with the highest NFT sales on Crypto Slam. With both traditional financial market developments and innovations in the NFT space added, the prospect of BTC is appealing.
Bitcoin’s current price trend
As of this writing, Bitcoin was showing strength in its current bull trend. It was trending near 60 on its Relative Strength Index (RSI). The chart showed that the bull run started in October and has remained since then.
Read Bitcoin (BTC) Price Prediction 2023-24
Also, the chart showed that since breaking into the $40,000 price range, it has maintained this level.
As of this writing, BTC was trading at around $45,299 experiencing a gain of around 6% in the last 24 hours.
Source: https://ambcrypto.com/how-etf-proposals-ordinals-can-fuel-bitcoin-to-100000-in-2024/