How 91% of Bitcoin supply remains in profit despite $111K price test?

Key Takeaways 

Bitcoin shows strong resilience, with 91% of supply in profit despite sell-side dominance. Meanwhile, NVT weakness and $111K liquidation clusters highlight short-term volatility and directional risks.

Bitcoin’s [BTC] recent correction has left only 9% of supply in loss, with 91% still in profit, reflecting one of the strongest resilience levels in Bitcoin’s history.

In comparison, past cycle bottoms in 2015 and 2018 saw nearly 50% of supply underwater, a stark difference that highlights the current market’s structural strength.

Unlike those painful drawdowns, today’s dip reveals shallow realized losses and stronger conviction among holders. 

Therefore, the retracement appears less like a breakdown and more like a healthy reset in a broader uptrend, even as short-term indicators point to selling pressure.

Spot taker CVD highlights dominant sell-side activity

Spot Taker CVD data, which tracks cumulative market order imbalances, shows dominant selling pressure from takers. 

Over the past ninety days, Taker Sell Volume has outweighed buying activity. This reflects cautious sentiment among short-term market participants. 

These traders are actively reducing exposure after Bitcoin’s rally toward the $110K level, seeking to lock in profits before volatility increases. 

However, the impact of taker selling appears limited compared to the deeper drawdowns seen in past cycles. 

Therefore, while immediate price action could remain under pressure, longer-term holder resilience continues to provide a floor that cushions against sharp declines.

Source: CryptoQuant

Does the NVT Golden Cross decline hint at weakening demand?

The NVT Golden Cross, which gauges transaction strength relative to Bitcoin’s valuation, has declined by 12.54%, at press time, indicating weaker network activity compared to market value.

Historically, prolonged drops in this metric have aligned with local tops or short-term consolidation. 

However, the current decline is moderate relative to past bearish phases, suggesting that Bitcoin’s core fundamentals remain intact.

While network activity still offers support, reduced efficiency may limit upward momentum. 

Overall, the weakening NVT signals caution, but not a structural breakdown, leaving room for a potential recovery if demand stabilizes.

Source: CryptoQuant

Liquidation clusters around $111K raise volatility risks

The Binance liquidation heatmap shows heavy clusters of long positions concentrated just below the $111K level. If Bitcoin dips into this zone, cascading long liquidations could trigger sharp downside volatility. 

However, an equally large concentration of short liquidations sits above current price levels, meaning a sudden rebound could fuel a powerful upside squeeze.

Therefore, the market sits at a key inflection point where either direction holds significant risk. 

Traders face a delicate balance, as both long and short exposures could quickly unwind. This dynamic highlights why $111K remains the level most likely to define near-term price direction.

Source: CoinGlass

Is Bitcoin preparing for a breakout or deeper correction?

Bitcoin’s metrics highlight caution rather than collapse. The dominance of taker sells and weakening NVT Golden Cross suggest risks. On the other hand, strong holder resilience and clustered liquidations hint at possible sharp swings. 

Therefore, Bitcoin appears to be consolidating rather than breaking down, resetting before its next major move. 

Whether this reset leads to a renewed breakout or deeper correction will depend on whether sell-side dominance continues or eases. 

For now, Bitcoin remains in a balancing act, with both bullish and bearish scenarios still firmly in play at the $111K pivot zone.