Here’s why Bitcoin risks $100K fall after triple rebound failure

Key Takeaways

Bitcoin’s liquidation heatmap shows heavy overleveraged longs at $105k. Does BTC have the bid to absorb it, or is a deeper, long squeeze to $100k coming?

On the daily chart, Bitcoin [BTC] is holding up.

Since the $124k all-time high on the 14th of August, BTC has printed three lower lows. Each time, BTC spent a few days chopping tight before snapping the floor and hitting late-long stops.

However, the third low at $107.5k is looking different. BTC’s been grinding under $110k for four days straight, with sub-1% daily moves, much tighter than the usual 1.5-3% swings we saw on prior breakout attempts.

Source: TradingView (BTC/USDT)

That suggests bulls are “strategically” repositioning into BTC. 

Reinforcing this shift, Bitcoin dominance (BTC.D) is bouncing off 57%, up 1.52%, suggesting capital might be rotating back and treating $107k as a discounted “dip” or a local bottom.

But heads up, there’s a caution. The last three failed rebounds saw Bitcoin Open Interest (OI) spike above $83 billion, showing aggressive leverage chasing directional bets. Now, the same pattern seems to be forming again.

Overleveraged longs test Bitcoin’s strength

Bitcoin’s indecision is showing on-chain. 

For starters, smart money’s moving out, institutions are sitting tight, and STH NUPL is still red. At the same time, over 60% of BTC/USDT perpetual contracts on Binance are skewed long.

In fact, since BTC cracked the first lower low under $110k in mid-August, overexposed longs have been stacking, highlighting the risk as BTC’s OI keeps spiking past $83 billion. The result? Repeated long sweeps.

Source: CoinGlass

Simply put, Bitcoin’s stuck in a rinse-and-repeat range. 

To break out, bids need to absorb the overexposed longs below $110k before taking on the massive shorts above. Technically, BTC is holding, but the lack of fresh accumulation keeps it exposed.

Therefore, a fourth lower low isn’t off the table. In fact, another long squeeze could be brewing beneath the surface. If risk-off stays in play, bears could drag Bitcoin back toward $100k.