Bitcoin (BTC) green-washed the entire market with the recovery wave it launched last night. However, the sharp corrections it has experienced consecutively over the past two months have revived talk of a bear and crypto winter.
While some analysts claim that a bear market has arrived with the declines, others state that such deep corrections are normal in bull markets and that the bull market is not over yet.
At this point, analysis firm Glassnode said in its latest report that it is too early to declare crypto winter for Bitcoin.
It’s too early to say the market has entered a “crypto winter” or a prolonged bear market, and such claims lack sufficient evidence, according to a new report by Glassnode and Fasanara Digital.
Analysts have noted that Bitcoin experienced similar declines during periods of leverage reduction or macro tightening, namely in 2017, 2020, and 2023, before continuing to rise. Glassnode and Fasanara stated that the leverage reduction in October 2025 followed this pattern seen in other years.
Glassnode and Fasanara Digital pointed to Bitcoin’s recent influx of more than $732 billion in net new capital since its 2022 cycle bottom as an example of the bull run.
Citing several key indicators, analyst firms have argued that the current decline is a mid-cycle consolidation.
At this point, the report noted that capital inflows during the last Bitcoin cycle exceeded the total of all previous cycles.
Apart from this, the spot price has increased from the 2022 bottom of $16,000 to $126,000, and spot Bitcoin ETFs currently hold 1.36 million BTC (6.9% of the circulating supply) and continue to see sustained demand.
The report also noted that Bitcoin’s current price action is different from past crypto winters.
According to the report, Bitcoin is trading closer to this year’s peak of $126,000 than its cycle low of $76,000, whereas in previous winters, BTC had fallen towards the bottom of its range. At this point, analysts argued that Bitcoin needed to fall much lower to be considered in bear season.
Glassnode and Fasanara also noted that fundamental bear market signals are absent in Bitcoin. One-year realized volatility has fallen from 84% to 43%, in contrast to the increased volatility seen at the beginning of past winters. Furthermore, there is no evidence of miner hash rates falling or of realized losses accumulating among long-term investors.
*This is not investment advice.