Google Quantum Threat: Can ETH and BTC Be Broken?

Google’s new research reveals that quantum computers may require less power to break the cryptography protecting Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) blockchains. The research estimates that this cryptography can be broken with fewer than 500,000 physical qubits based on current hardware assumptions.

Technical Details of Google’s Quantum Research

In a test of a cryptographically relevant quantum computer (CRQC) based on superconducting qubits, a 20-fold reduction in the number of qubits was achieved for the 256-bit elliptic curve discrete logarithm problem (ECDLP-256), which is widely used in cryptocurrency blockchains. This is an optimization beyond traditional estimates; Google Quantum AI increased qubit efficiency with error correction algorithms and hybrid approaches. ECDLP plays a fundamental role in deriving public keys from private keys and becomes breakable with quantum algorithms like Shor’s in parallel computations.

Risk of On-Spend Attack on Bitcoin

In a theoretical scenario specific to BTC, a quantum computer can perform an “on-spend attack” within Bitcoin’s 10-minute block time by breaking a private key in as little as 9 minutes. This is critical when reusing addresses during spending; the attacker can redirect funds to their own wallet. The graph shows the success probability:


Graph showing the risk that an on-spend quantum attack that takes 9 minutes to derive a private key succeeds against Bitcoin. Source: Google Quantum AI

Ethereum’s Sensitivity to At-Rest Attacks

ETH is structurally sensitive to “at-rest attacks”; the public key becomes permanently visible on the blockchain in the first transaction. The richest 1,000 exposed ETH accounts (containing approximately 20.5 million ETH) can be broken in less than 9 days. This, as we emphasized on our ETH detailed analysis pages, increases the risk of old addresses.

Current ETH Price and Technical Levels

As of March 31, 2026, ETH price is $2,057.59, 24-hour change +0.58%. RSI 48.05 (neutral), trend sideways, Supertrend bearish. EMA 20: $2,076.41.

LevelPriceScoreDistanceSources
S1$1,939.7871/100 ⭐-5.84%S3, Donchian Lower, Fibo 0.114
S2$2,023.2067/100 ⭐-1.79%Prev Day Close, Swing L
R1$2,149.6767/100 ⭐+4.35%HVN 5, Ichimoku Kijun, Fibo 0.214
R2$2,066.1565/100 ⭐+0.30%POC, Ichimoku Tenkan

Quantum news may affect ETH futures volatility; similar BTC spot analysis is recommended for BTC.

Urgent Transition to Post-Quantum Cryptography

Google recommends an urgent transition of blockchains to post-quantum cryptography (PQC) and sets 2029 as the deadline. Ethereum researcher Justin Drake sees the probability of Q-Day (quantum supremacy day) by 2032 as over 10%. Integration of lattice-based algorithms like NIST standards (Kyber, Dilithium) is essential.

Strategy Analyst: David Kim

Macro market analysis and portfolio management

This analysis is not investment advice. Do your own research.

Source: https://en.coinotag.com/google-quantum-threat-can-eth-and-btc-be-broken