Global Macro Signals Favor Price of Bitcoin In Second Half of 2025

The price of Bitcoin surged to an all-time high of $111,486 on May 21, 2025, according to CoinMarketCap, as macroeconomic tailwinds supported renewed investor confidence.

Heading into the second half of the year, key global signals—from a weakening U.S. dollar to rising global liquidity—suggest conditions remain favorable for further gains in the price of Bitcoin.

Economic Growth and Policy Shifts Support the Price of Bitcoin

Recent macro data underscores a stronger-than-expected U.S. economy. The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model estimated 3.8% quarter-over-quarter growth in Q2 2025.

Inflation has also eased, with June CPI data falling in line with the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. In response, the Fed maintained interest rates at 4.25–4.50% in June, though markets now anticipate rate cuts before year-end.

In Europe, the ECB is following suit. Eurozone inflation data published in June showed a return to target levels, prompting forecasts of an additional 25 basis point cut.

This took the ECB deposit rate to 1.75% by December. Easing monetary policy on both sides of the Atlantic often supports risk assets, including Bitcoin.

U.S. Dollar Weakness Boosts Crypto Outlook

One of the strongest macro tailwinds for the price of Bitcoin is the decline in the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY).

According to Trading View data, the DXY posted its worst H1 performance in over four decades.

Historically, the price of Bitcoin shows a negative correlation with the dollar. Research from Milk Road suggests Bitcoin tends to rally three months after significant dollar weakness.

In parallel, global liquidity is expanding. Monetary aggregates tracked by central banks indicate a net increase in available capital, which often correlates with gains in crypto markets.

According to CF Benchmarks, traders are now pricing in 0.75 to 1.00 percentage point of rate cuts from the Fed by year-end—a historically bullish signal for the price of Bitcoin.

Institutional Demand and Regulatory Progress

May 2025 marked a turning point for institutional demand. Analysts attribute this to improving regulatory clarity, including U.S. legislation such as the CLARITY and GENIUS Acts.

Additionally, the SEC is reviewing more than 80 crypto ETF filings, paving the way for wider access to digital assets. Meanwhile, corporate treasuries are increasingly including Bitcoin on their balance sheets.

The Financial Accounting Standards Board’s (FASB) decision in 2024 to allow companies to mark Bitcoin at fair market value has encouraged strategic allocation.

Together, these factors are contributing to sustained upward momentum in the price of Bitcoin.

Seasonality and Long-Term Holding Trends

Seasonal trends further support bullish sentiment. Data from Coinglass show that July has historically been a positive month for Bitcoin in bull-cycle years such as 2013, 2017, and 2021.

In each instance, rising global liquidity coincided with double-digit monthly returns. At the same time, long-term holders are showing restraint. 

Over 45% of Bitcoin’s circulating supply has not moved in more than three years. This suggests that many early investors are holding out for higher levels, lending price stability to the current market.

Macro Tailwinds Set the Stage for the Price of Bitcoin

The convergence of favorable macroeconomic trends, expanding liquidity, and increased institutional interest paints a bullish picture for the price of Bitcoin in the second half of 2025.

While past performance is no guarantee of future results, historical patterns and present fundamentals indicate the digital asset could see continued upside.