Europe’s financial system may be heading for a fresh liquidity shock, with France at the center of the storm.
The Banque de France revealed a staggering €7.7 billion loss for 2024, pushing the country’s deficit to more than €168 billion – nearly 6% of GDP and far above EU budget rules.
The shortfall has rattled investors, with capital flowing out of France and demand for its bonds weakening. Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, believes this exodus sets the stage for extraordinary measures from the European Central Bank. Speaking at TOKEN2049 in Singapore, he argued that the ECB will eventually be forced to fire up the printing presses.
Hayes framed the situation as a lose-lose scenario for policymakers: either inject trillions of euros now to keep France afloat or wait until the banking system requires an even larger rescue later. “In both cases, they lose control,” he said, suggesting that capital controls, defaults, or currency redenomination could follow if printing is delayed.
Roughly 60% of French debt is in foreign hands, largely held by Germany and Japan. With the United States scaling back its overseas investments, that safety net is weakening, leaving the ECB little room to maneuver.
For Bitcoin, the implications are clear, Hayes added. Each round of quantitative easing in the past has fueled major crypto rallies. During the pandemic in 2020, when the U.S. Federal Reserve launched a $4 trillion bond-buying program, BTC soared more than 1,000% in under two years.
If the ECB follows the same path, Hayes believes Bitcoin could once again be the biggest beneficiary of Europe’s monetary troubles.
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Source: https://coindoo.com/frances-soaring-deficit-puts-pressure-on-ecb-bitcoin-tipped-to-benefit/